The Relationship Between Economic Dynamics and Fertility: As an Existential Issue of Baby Shortage in Türkiye

Spanning from the classical insights of Malthus and Marx to the contemporary perspectives of Dumont and Becker, theorists have consistently underscored the pivotal role of economic factors in explaining fertility trends, weaving a narrative that connects historical and modern economic theories in the study of demographic dynamics. This study examines the impact of economic factors on Türkiye's fertility rates from 1990 to 2022, focusing on how changes in the consumer price index, GDP per capita, and social protection expenditure have influenced population trends. As more than one structural break was observed in the series, Clemente Montanes Reyes, Hatemi-J and Maki analyses were carried out. The results of the study do not indicate that the fertility rate in Türkiye is significantly affected by economic factors. No evidence of long-run cointegration between these variables was found. Therefore, changes in economic factors have little or negligible direct impact on the fertility rate. This research offers a crucial benchmark for shaping fertility policies in both developed and developing nations, as it thoroughly examines how economic progress influences population trends. These results highlight the complex dynamics of fertility and underline the need to understand the effects of increased female labor force participation, childcare costs, fertility anxiety and work-family conflict fertility decline.