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The microstructure of the TIPS market

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  • Michael J. Fleming
  • Neel Krishnan

Abstract

The potential advantages from the introduction of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) in 1997 have not been fully realized, mainly because TIPS are less liquid than nominal Treasury securities. The lack of liquidity is thought to adversely affect TIPS prices relative to prices of nominal securities, offsetting the benefits that come from TIPS having no inflation risk. Despite the importance of TIPS liquidity and the market’s large size, there is virtually no quantitative evidence on the securities’ liquidity. This article sheds light on this phenomenon using novel tick data from the interdealer market. The authors identify several features of the TIPS market also present in the nominal securities market, but some unique features as well. As in the nominal market, there is a marked difference in trading activity between the most recently issued (“on-the-run”) and previously issued (“off-the-run”) securities, as trading drops sharply when securities go off the run. In contrast to the nominal market, there is little difference in bid-ask spreads or quoted depth between these securities, but there is a difference in the incidence of posted quotes. These results suggest that trading activity and quote incidence may be better cross-sectional measures of liquidity in the TIPS market than bid-ask spreads or quoted depth. Intraday patterns of trading activity are broadly similar in both markets, but TIPS activity peaks somewhat later, likely reflecting differences in the use and ownership of these securities. Announcement effects also differ between markets, with TIPS auction results and CPI releases eliciting particularly strong increases in trading activity, likely indicating these announcements’ special importance to TIPS valuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Fleming & Neel Krishnan, 2012. "The microstructure of the TIPS market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 27-45.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2012:i:mar:p:27-45:n:v.18no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Beechey, Meredith J. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 535-544, May.
    3. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    4. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-32.
    5. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
    6. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    7. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Discriminatory versus uniform Treasury auctions: Evidence from when-issued transactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 63-104, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, pages 79-138.
    2. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    3. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    4. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
    5. William Dudley & Jennifer E. Roush & Michelle Steinberg Ezer, 2009. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-17.
    6. Iryna Kaminska & Dimitri Vayanos & Gabriele Zinna, 2011. "Preferred-Habitat Investors and the US Term Structure of Real Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp674, Financial Markets Group.
    7. Cartea, Álvaro & Saúl, Jonatan & Toro, Juan, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-740.
    8. Dupor, Bill & Li, Rong, 2015. "The expected inflation channel of government spending in the postwar U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 36-56.

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