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What do expected changes in U.S. job structure mean for states and workers in the Tenth District?

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  • Chad R. Wilkerson

Abstract

Public interest in the future structure of the U.S. labor market has been understandably high in recent years, for several reasons. Some types of manufacturing and service jobs are going offshore. The recovery in employment from the 2001 recession has been sluggish. And the quality of job creation has been called into question. Against this backdrop, policymakers, businesses, workers, and students in the Tenth Federal Reserve District are asking difficult questions about the future of jobs in their area. Will local industries increase or decrease employment in the years ahead? What types of workers will be in highest demand? Are future jobs in the area likely to be high paying? Wilkerson looks at the potential impact of expected changes in U.S. job structure on employment in the Tenth District. Specifically, he analyzes the latest national industrial and occupational employment projections made by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and discusses what the projections mean for states and workers in the region—both in terms of quantity and quality of job growth through 2012. He draws two primary conclusions from the data. First, except in Colorado, the current industrial structures of Tenth District states are less favorable for future job growth than in the nation, although in some cases only slightly so. Second, the prospects for high-quality job growth in several district states may be somewhat lower than in the nation. While high paying jobs are projected to grow faster than low paying jobs across the district, the industrial structures of Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Wyoming are not quite as conducive to growth in high paying jobs as in the country as a whole.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad R. Wilkerson, 2005. "What do expected changes in U.S. job structure mean for states and workers in the Tenth District?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 59-93.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2005:i:qii:p:59-93:n:v.90no.2
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    File URL: http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/econrev/Pdf/2q05wilk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garcia-Mila, Teresa & McGuire, Therese J., 1993. "Industrial mix as a factor in the growth and variability of states' economies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 731-748, December.
    2. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1996. "The Role Of Industry Structure, Costs, And Economic Spillovers In Determining State Employment Growth Rates," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 26(3), pages 235-264, Winter.
    3. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chad R. Wilkerson & Megan D. Williams, 2007. "The Tenth District's defining industries: how are they changing?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 59-81.
    2. Chad R. Wilkerson, 2009. "Recession and recovery across the nation: lessons from history," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-24.

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