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Uncertainty, unemployment, and inflation

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Abstract

Heightened uncertainty acts like a decline in aggregate demand because it depresses economic activity and holds down inflation. Policymakers typically try to counter uncertainty's economic effects by easing the stance of monetary policy. But, in the recent recession and recovery, nominal interest rates have been near zero and couldn't be lowered further. Consequently, uncertainty has reduced economic activity more than in previous recessions. Higher uncertainty is estimated to have lifted the U.S. unemployment rate by at least one percentage point since early 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Uncertainty, unemployment, and inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep17.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2012:i:sep17:n:2012-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    2. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    3. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith & Stark, Tom, 2007. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 433-459, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2014. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 69-81, February.
    2. Saltzman, Bennett & Yung, Julieta, 2018. "A machine learning approach to identifying different types of uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-62.
    3. Mathy, Gabriel & Ziebarth, Nicolas L., 2017. "How Much Does Political Uncertainty Matter? The Case of Louisiana under Huey Long," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 90-126, March.
    4. Houari, Oussama, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Anasuya Haldar & Narayan Sethi, 2022. "The Economic Effects Of Covid-19 Mitigation Policies On Unemployment And Economic Policy Uncertainty," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(Special I), pages 61-84, March.
    6. Suleyman Kasal & Sebnem Tosunoglu, 2022. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on Turkish Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(6), pages 538-566.
    7. Tajaddini, Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2021. "Economic uncertainty and business formation: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    8. Stefan Schiman & Atanas Pekanov, 2020. "Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66708.
    9. Alain MALATA & Christian PINSHI, 2020. "Fading The Effects Of Coronavirus With Monetary Policy," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 105-110.
    10. PINSHI, Christian P. & MALATA, Alain, 2020. "Canal d’incertitude de la COVID-19 : Quelles stratégies et tactiques pour la politique monétaire ? [COVID-19 Uncertainty Channel: What Strategies and Tactics for Monetary Policy?]," MPRA Paper 109313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Zheng Liu & Andrew Tai, 2016. "Slow Credit Recovery and Excess Returns on Capital," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. John C. Williams, 2013. "The economy and monetary policy in uncertain times," Speech 115, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Manuel Flores & Melchor Fernández & Yolanda Pena-Boquete, 2020. "The impact of health on wages: evidence from Europe before and during the Great Recession," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 319-346.
    14. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn & Michailidis, George, 2019. "Interconnectedness in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 520-538.
    15. repec:fip:fedfsp:y:2013:i:jan.14 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2015. "Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 529-558, March.
    17. Brunetti, Celso & Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Harris, Jeffrey H., 2016. "Speculators, Prices, and Market Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(5), pages 1545-1574, October.

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