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Efecto del gasto público sobre el gasto privado en México

  • Ramón A. Castillo Ponce

    (California State University, Los Angeles)

  • Jorge Herrera Hernández

    (Banco de México)

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    Traditionally, the analysis of the impact of public expenditure on private expenditure has been performed via graphical evaluations and simple econometric exercises. In this document we present a detailed econometric analysis of the relationship between said variables. In particular, we evaluate the existence of a crowding out effect of public consumption and investment on private consumption and investment for the period 1980:I - 2002:II. The econometric results indicate that public investment crowds out private investment in the short-run but complements it in the long-run. In the case of private consumption we find statistically significant evidence of crowding out during the period of analysis.

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    File URL: http://codex.colmex.mx:8991/exlibris/aleph/a18_1/apache_media/7BA2YXV8CXN84S81N9QVRJ8N1UC39B.pdf
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    Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 173-196

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    Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:20:y:2005:i:2:p:173-196
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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    1. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
    5. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
    7. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    8. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
    9. Eliana Cardoso, 1991. "Capital Formation in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 3616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 303-323, November.
    11. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
    12. Rama, Martin, 1990. "Empirical investment equations in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 563, The World Bank.
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