Evaluating agricultural catastrophic risk
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide an evaluation method for agricultural catastrophic risk. Design/methodology/approach - Data on agricultural disaster loss are collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard process. Peak over threshold (POT) approach based on the extreme value theory is used to model the distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, and value at risk (VaR) is used to assess agricultural catastrophic risk. Findings - This paper provides an approach for collecting agricultural loss data and modelling probability distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, which is promising for agricultural catastrophic risk evaluating. As the quantified measurement of agricultural catastrophic risk, VaR is observed to be appropriate and feasible. Results of empirical research demonstrate that drought catastrophe negatively affects grain-production in the northeast region of China; in particular, the drought catastrophic risk is severe within a 100-year scenario and thus is expected to recur. Originality/value - To provide an accurate agricultural catastrophic risk assessment, data collection based on disaster occurrence instead of crop yield, and VaR is used in this paper.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/caer.htm Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
- Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
- Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004.
"Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
- Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Mahul, Olivier, 2004. "Risk modeling concepts relating to the design and rating of agricultural insurance contracts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3392, The World Bank.
- Joseph W. Glauber, 2004. "Crop Insurance Reconsidered," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1179-1195.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:caerpp:v:3:y:2011:i:4:p:451-461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.