IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea05/19190.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling the Tail Distribution and Ratemaking: An Application of Extreme Value Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Hao, Jianqiang
  • Bathke, Arne
  • Skees, Jerry R.

Abstract

Economic analysis of weather risk often depends on accurate assessment of the probability (P) of tail quantiles (Q). Extreme value theory can provide a promising estimation of the tail part risk and this paper intends to apply the extreme value model to estimate the tail risk on India excess rainfall.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao, Jianqiang & Bathke, Arne & Skees, Jerry R., 2005. "Modeling the Tail Distribution and Ratemaking: An Application of Extreme Value Theory," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19190, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19190
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19190/files/sp05ha11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.19190?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard H. Day, 1965. "Probability Distributions of Field Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 713-741.
    2. Jerry R. Skees & J. Roy Black & Barry J. Barnett, 1997. "Designing and Rating an Area Yield Crop Insurance Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 430-438.
    3. Podbury, Troy & Sheales, Terry & Hussain, Intizar & Fisher, Brian S., 1998. "Use of El Nino climate forecasts in Australia," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 269839, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004. "Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
    5. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 1007-1017, August.
    6. Gallagher, Paul W., 1986. "U. S. Corn Yield Capacity and Probability: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10780, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Viswanath Tirupattur & Robert J. Hauser & Nabil M. Chaherli, 1996. "Crop Yield and Price Distributional Effects on Revenue Hedging," Finance 9612004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
    9. Alan P. Ker & Barry K. Goodwin, 2000. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Insurance Rates Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 463-478.
    10. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
    11. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1461-1465, December.
    12. Tirupattur, Viswanath & Hauser, Robert J. & Chaherli, Nabil M., 1996. "Crop Yield And Price Distributional Effects On Revenue Hedging," ACE OFOR Reports 14766, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    13. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 193-194, February.
    14. Martin, Steven W. & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H., 2001. "Developing And Pricing Precipitation Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14, July.
    15. Veeramani, Venkat N. & Maynard, Leigh J. & Skees, Jerry R., 2003. "Assessment Of The Risk Management Potential Of A Rainfall Based Insurance Index And Rainfall Options In Andhra Pradesh, India," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22183, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(5), pages 1273-1289, October.
    17. Alan P. Ker & Keith Coble, 2003. "Modeling Conditional Yield Densities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 291-304.
    18. Carl H. Nelson & Paul V. Preckel, 1989. "The Conditional Beta Distribution as a Stochastic Production Function," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 370-378.
    19. Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2000. "A Derivative Security Approach To Setting Crop Revenue Coverage Insurance Premiums," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-18, July.
    20. Troy Podbury & Terry C. Sheales & Intizar Hussain & Brian S. Fisher, 1998. "Use of El Niño Climate Forecasts in Australia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1096-1101.
    21. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 819-821, June.
    22. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 541-545, April.
    23. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rui Zhang & Songtao Xue & Liyu Xie & Fengliang Zhang & Wensheng Lu, 2019. "Structural Monitoring and Safety Assessment during Translocation of Mahavira Hall of Jade Buddha Temple," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-16, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghahremanzadeh, Mohammad & Mohammadrezaei, Rassul & Dashti, Ghader & Ainollahi, Moharram, 2018. "Designing a whole-farm revenue insurance for agricultural crops in Zanjan province of Iran," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(02), January.
    2. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Ozaki, Vitor & Campos, Rogério, 2017. "Reduzindo a Incerteza no Mercado de Seguros: Uma Abordagem via Informações de Sensoriamento Remoto e Atuária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(4), December.
    4. Vitor A. Ozaki & Sujit K. Ghosh & Barry K. Goodwin & Ricardo Shirota, 2008. "Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Agricultural Yield Data with an Application to Pricing Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 951-961.
    5. Deng, Xiaohui & Barnett, Barry J. & Hoogenboom, Gerrit & Yu, Yingzhuo & Garcia, Axel, 2006. "Evaluating the Efficiency of Crop Index Insurance Products," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35333, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Lanoue, Christopher & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Woodard, Joshua D. & Paulson, Nicholas D., 2010. "Evaluating Yield Models for Crop Insurance Rating," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61761, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Kalavakonda, Vijay & Mahul, Olivier, 2005. "Crop insurance in Karnataka," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3654, The World Bank.
    8. Claudia García-García & Catalina B. García-García & Román Salmerón, 2021. "Confronting collinearity in environmental regression models: evidence from world data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(3), pages 895-926, September.
    9. Cambier, Adrien & Chardy, Matthieu & Figueiredo, Rosa & Ouorou, Adam & Poss, Michael, 2022. "Optimizing subscriber migrations for a telecommunication operator in uncertain context," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 308-321.
    10. Libura, Marek, 2007. "On the adjustment problem for linear programs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 125-134, November.
    11. Christophe Loussouarn & Carine Franc & Yann Videau & Julien Mousquès, 2021. "Can General Practitioners Be More Productive? The Impact of Teamwork and Cooperation with Nurses on GP Activities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 680-698, March.
    12. Tschakert, Petra, 2016. "Shifting Discourses of Vilification and the Taming of Unruly Mining Landscapes in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 123-132.
    13. María-Consuelo Casabán & Rafael Company & Lucas Jódar, 2020. "Non-Gaussian Quadrature Integral Transform Solution of Parabolic Models with a Finite Degree of Randomness," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-16, July.
    14. Isabelle Boutron & Peter John & David J. Torgerson, 2010. "Reporting Methodological Items in Randomized Experiments in Political Science," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 628(1), pages 112-131, March.
    15. Ben Slimane, Faten & Padilla Angulo, Laura, 2019. "Strategic change and corporate governance: Evidence from the stock exchange industry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 206-218.
    16. Bossert, Walter & Derks, Jean & Peters, Hans, 2005. "Efficiency in uncertain cooperative games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 12-23, July.
    17. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
    18. Weijun Xie & Yanfeng Ouyang & Sze Chun Wong, 2016. "Reliable Location-Routing Design Under Probabilistic Facility Disruptions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 1128-1138, August.
    19. Sin-Yu Ho & N.M. Odhiambo, 2018. "Analysing the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1451265-145, January.
    20. Natalia Nikolaevna Natocheeva* & Yuri Alexandrovich Rovensky & Yuri Yuryevich Rusanov & Tatiana Viktorovna Belyanchikova & Anna Anatolevna Staurskaya, 2018. "Optimizing Variability of Approaches to Regulatory Financing of Higher Education Services," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 221-227:3.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.