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U. S. Corn Yield Capacity and Probability: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances

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  • Gallagher, Paul W.

Abstract

This article explores the hypothesis that National Average Corn yields are skewed with a relatively high chance of occasional low yields. Maximum likelihood estimates support this hypothesis. Revised forecasts which account for skewed corn yields feature point and interval forecasts that are positioned higher than forecasts based on symmetric distributions. Moreover, the chance of very low corn yields dominates the chance that the revised interval forecast is not realized.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallagher, Paul W., 1986. "U. S. Corn Yield Capacity and Probability: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10780, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:10780
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Schunk & Bruce Hannon, 2004. "Impacts of a carbon tax policy on Illinois grain farms: a dynamic simulation study," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 6(3), pages 221-247, September.
    2. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Neupane, Diwash & Moss, Charles B., 2014. "Impact of Graze-­‐Out in Hard Red Winter Wheat Production," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162545, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Arora, Gaurav & Agarwal, Sandip K., 2020. "Agricultural input use and index insurance adoption: Concept and evidence," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304508, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Woodard, Joshua D. & Chiu Verteramo, Leslie & Miller, Alyssa P., 2015. "Adaptation of U.S. Agricultural Production to Drought and Climate Change," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205903, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Turvey, Calum & Zhao, Jinhua, 1999. "Parametric And Non- Parametric Crop Yield Distributions and Their Effects on All-Risk Crop Insurance Premiums," Working Papers 244742, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. A. Ford Ramsey & Barry K. Goodwin, 2019. "Value-at-Risk and Models of Dependence in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Hao, Jianqiang & Bathke, Arne & Skees, Jerry R., 2005. "Modeling the Tail Distribution and Ratemaking: An Application of Extreme Value Theory," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19190, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Ghahremanzadeh, Mohammad & Mohammadrezaei, Rassul & Dashti, Ghader & Ainollahi, Moharram, 2018. "Designing a whole-farm revenue insurance for agricultural crops in Zanjan province of Iran," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(02), January.

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