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Monetary policy and recovery of economic growth in Ukraine

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  • Shums'ka S.

Abstract

The article deals with international experience and methods of central banks that contributed to the economic development of their countries. The author provides an analysis of principles and results of the current monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine in the context of the opportunities for monetary support of economic recovery. It is shown that the peculiarities of modern monetary policy in Ukraine and in particular the qualitative change in the nature of the hryvnia's emission led to decreased amount of real money in the economy, slower lending, lower confidence and growing inflation expectations. To analyze the stabilization function of monetary policy, the author estimates potential GDP (trend 1993-2014), obtained with Hodrika - Prescott filter by separating the trend and cyclical components. To assess the impact of the changes in the real money supply on real GDP rate, the author carried out model based calculations, which, based on elasticity coefficient, made it possible to obtain estimates of GDP in 2015. The article justifies the necessity of adjustment of the current policy and identifies various guidelines, which, within the implementation of inflation targeting, would not raise the price dynamics but rather support economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Shums'ka S., 2015. "Monetary policy and recovery of economic growth in Ukraine," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 3, pages 21-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2015:i:3:p:21-41
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    File URL: http://eip.org.ua/docs/EP_15_3_21_uk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Drobyshevsky, S. & Trunin, P., 2014. "The Evolution of Theory and Practice of Monetary Policy as a Result of the Global Economic Crisis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 141-158.
    3. Brimmer, Andrew F, 1971. "Central Banking and Economic Development: The Record of Innovation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 780-792, November.
    4. A. Apokin & D. Belousov & I. Goloshchapova & I. Ipatova & O. Solntsev., 2014. "On the Fundamental Deficiencies of Current Monetary Policy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.
    5. E. Goryunov & S. Drobyshevsky & P. Trunin., 2015. "Monetary Policy of Bank of Russia: Strategy and Tactics," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    6. Goryunov, Eugene & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "The Bank of Russia at a Crossroads: Whether to Ease Monetary Policy?," Published Papers dok15, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
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    Cited by:

    1. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2018. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 168-186.
    2. Cook, Adam & Ehrlich, Isaac, 2018. "Was Higher Education a Major Channel through which the US Became an Economic Superpower in the 20th Century?," IZA Discussion Papers 11648, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ryu, Hang K. & Slottje, Daniel J., 2017. "Maximum entropy estimation of income distributions from Basmann’s weighted geometric mean measure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 221-231.

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