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Business Cycle Volatility in Developed Market Economies, 1870-1986: Revisions and Conjectures

  • Morris Altman

    (University of Saskatchewan)

Alternative estimates for the volatility of pre-depression and post-World War II Canadian business cycles are constructed using various real Canadian GNP series. These estimates all suggest that the latter period was prone to much less cyclical volatility than the pre-depression years. With few exceptions, similar results are obtained from volatility estimates produced for thirteen other now-developed nations, including the United States. These findings provide evidential support for the traditional view that there was a considerable dampening of the business cycle in the years following World War II period compared to the pre-depression period.

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File URL: http://college.holycross.edu/RePEc/eej/Archive/Volume18/V18N3P259_275.pdf
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Article provided by Eastern Economic Association in its journal Eastern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 18 (1992)
Issue (Month): 3 (Summer)
Pages: 259-275

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Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:18:y:1992:i:3:p:259-275
Contact details of provider: Postal: c/o Dr. Alexandre Olbrecht, The Anisfield School of Business 205, Ramapo College, 505 Ramapo Valley Road, Ramapo, New Jersey 07430, USA
Phone: (201) 684-7346
Web page: http://www.ramapo.edu/eea/journal.html
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  1. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  2. Boltho, Andrea, 1989. "Did policy activism work?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1709-1726, December.
  3. Sheffrin, Steven M., 1988. "Have economic fluctuations been dampened? : A look at evidence outside the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 73-83, January.
  4. McCloskey, Donald N, 1983. "The Rhetoric of Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 481-517, June.
  5. Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-34, June.
  6. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
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