Spatial evolution of liner bunkering hubs in Asia–Europe: Green fuel adoption under demand and fuel price uncertainty

The global challenge of decarbonizing container liner shipping has prompted the increased adoption of green methanol. This paper examines how the widespread use of green methanol shapes the spatial distribution of bunkering hubs along Asia–Europe liner shipping routes. We propose an analytical framework that incorporates a multinomial Logit model and a stochastic programming (SP) model. The former estimates the container transportation demand of different routes, whereas the latter optimizes the operational strategies (i.e., fleet size, liner sailing speed, bunkering management strategies, and slot allocation) of liner companies while considering the carbon tax and uncertainties associated with transportation demand and fuel price. To solve the SP model, a sample average approximation technique is applied to address the random variables, and a piecewise linear approximation method is used to handle the nonlinear constraints in the model. Using real-world operational data from 37 Asia–Europe routes, we create three scenarios to explore the evolution of bunkering hubs in Eurasia. The results reveal that the lower energy density of green methanol shifts liner bunkering from centralized hubs such as Port of Singapore to a multi-layered network, elevating ports such as Port of Qingdao and Port of Rotterdam. A 15 % decrease in the price of green fuel in China has resulted in a 72 % reduction in the market share of Port of Singapore, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of East Asian hubs.