IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v174y2025ics0967070x25003750.html

Electric bus transition with leasing companies: An evolutionary game theory approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Haonan
  • Lee, C.K.M.
  • Ji, Ping
  • Zhao, Zhonghao

Abstract

Many governments have implemented policies to promote the adoption of electric buses (EBs) due to their environmental benefits. However, declining government subsidies, driven by falling battery costs and increased EB availability, have led bus operators to collaborate with leasing companies to mitigate financial burdens. To address this issue, this study makes the first attempt to develop a tripartite evolutionary game model that dynamically captures government-operator-leasing company interactions, where leasing companies are introduced to address operator financing constraints and accelerate fleet electrification. The Evolutionarily Stable Strategy conditions are identified based on the Jacobian matrix to analyze the interaction between stakeholders. Numerical simulations show that: 1) tripartite cooperation is enhanced by increasing subsidies to leasing companies under a fixed total subsidy; 2) lower interest rates lead bus operators to prefer owning EBs, while leasing companies invest in EBs; 3) appropriate annual service fees are crucial in influencing the strategic choices of both leasing companies and bus operators.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Haonan & Lee, C.K.M. & Ji, Ping & Zhao, Zhonghao, 2025. "Electric bus transition with leasing companies: An evolutionary game theory approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0967070x25003750
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103832
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X25003750
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103832?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Mingye & Yang, Min & Gao, Yangfan, 2024. "Tripartite evolutionary game and simulation analysis of electric bus charging facility sharing under the governmental reward and punishment mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    2. Higueras-Castillo, Elena & Kalinic, Zoran & Marinkovic, Veljko & Liébana-Cabanillas, Francisco J., 2020. "A mixed analysis of perceptions of electric and hybrid vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Yang, Shu & Cheng, Peng & Li, Jun & Wang, Shanyong, 2019. "Which group should policies target? Effects of incentive policies and product cognitions for electric vehicle adoption among Chinese consumers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Yang, Jun & Guo, Fang & Zhang, Min, 2017. "Optimal planning of swapping/charging station network with customer satisfaction," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 174-197.
    5. Mekky, Maher F. & Collins, Alan R., 2024. "The Impact of state policies on electric vehicle adoption -A panel data analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Champahom, Thanapong & Wisutwattanasak, Panuwat & Chonsalasin, Dissakoon & Se, Chamroeun & Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj & Ratanavaraha, Vatanavongs, 2025. "Comparing Electric Vehicle Adoption Intentions Across Vehicle Types in Thailand: An Extended UTAUT2 Model with Government Participation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 408-435.
    7. Vidyattama, Yogi & Tanton, Robert & Sinclair, Darren & Schirmer, Jacki, 2024. "Simulating electric vehicle policy in the Australian capital territory," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 91-99.
    8. Holland, Stephen P. & Mansur, Erin T. & Muller, Nicholas Z. & Yates, Andrew J., 2021. "The environmental benefits of transportation electrification: Urban buses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    9. Li, Jingjing & Jiao, Jianling & Tang, Yunshu, 2019. "An evolutionary analysis on the effect of government policies on electric vehicle diffusion in complex network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Li, Songrui, 2022. "How can personal carbon trading be applied in electric vehicle subsidies? A Stackelberg game method in private vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    11. Liu, Changyu & Song, Yadong & Wang, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "The governance of manufacturers’ greenwashing behaviors: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis of electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    12. Sun, Ya-Fang & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Su, Bin, 2022. "Impact of government subsidy on the optimal R&D and advertising investment in the cooperative supply chain of new energy vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. Hardman, Scott, 2019. "Understanding the impact of reoccurring and non-financial incentives on plug-in electric vehicle adoption – A review," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Friedman, Daniel, 1991. "Evolutionary Games in Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 637-666, May.
    15. Jorgen W. Weibull, 1997. "Evolutionary Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262731215, December.
    16. Orji, Ifeyinwa Juliet, 2024. "Adopting electric bus for improving efficiency in the local public transport sector: Analysis of facilitating conditions and their nonlinear relationships," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Vanessa Stjernborg & Ola Mattisson, 2016. "The Role of Public Transport in Society—A Case Study of General Policy Documents in Sweden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    18. Ma, Haicheng & Lou, Gaoxiang & Fan, Tijun & Chan, Hing Kai & Chung, Sai Ho, 2021. "Conventional automotive supply chains under China's dual-credit policy: fuel economy, production and coordination," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Wang, Shanyong & Li, Jun & Zhao, Dingtao, 2017. "The impact of policy measures on consumer intention to adopt electric vehicles: Evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 14-26.
    20. Zhang, Lei & Qin, Quande, 2018. "China’s new energy vehicle policies: Evolution, comparison and recommendation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 57-72.
    21. Guo, Fang & Yang, Jun & Lu, Jianyi, 2018. "The battery charging station location problem: Impact of users’ range anxiety and distance convenience," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-18.
    22. repec:fth:iniesr:487 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Yu, Xinning & Lan, Yanfei & Zhao, Ruiqing, 2021. "Strategic green technology innovation in a two-stage alliance: Vertical collaboration or co-development?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    24. Liu, Xiaoling & Sun, Xiaohua & Li, Mingshan & Zhai, Yu, 2020. "The effects of demonstration projects on electric vehicle diffusion: An empirical study in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    25. Zhang, Xingping & Liang, Yanni & Yu, Enhai & Rao, Rao & Xie, Jian, 2017. "Review of electric vehicle policies in China: Content summary and effect analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 698-714.
    26. Enayati, Erfan & Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Jafari, Hamed & Altmann, Jörn, 2025. "A game-theoretic approach for the sustainable development of public bus fleet under government policies considering passenger behavior: A case study of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    27. Lévay, Petra Zsuzsa & Drossinos, Yannis & Thiel, Christian, 2017. "The effect of fiscal incentives on market penetration of electric vehicles: A pairwise comparison of total cost of ownership," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 524-533.
    28. Huang, Xingjun & Lin, Yun & Lim, Ming K. & Zhou, Fuli & Ding, Rui & Zhang, Zusheng, 2022. "Evolutionary dynamics of promoting electric vehicle-charging infrastructure based on public–private partnership cooperation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    29. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Tong, Zihao & Hubacek, Klaus, 2022. "Strategies for applying carbon trading to the new energy vehicle market in China: An improved evolutionary game analysis for the bus industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    30. Zhou, Boya & Wu, Ye & Zhou, Bin & Wang, Renjie & Ke, Wenwei & Zhang, Shaojun & Hao, Jiming, 2016. "Real-world performance of battery electric buses and their life-cycle benefits with respect to energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 603-613.
    31. Liu, Yajie & Dong, Feng, 2022. "What are the roles of consumers, automobile production enterprises, and the government in the process of banning gasoline vehicles? Evidence from a tripartite evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    32. Hardman, Scott, 2019. "Understanding the Impact of Reoccurring and Non-Financial Incentives on Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption – A Review," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7v13w987, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    33. Jenn, Alan & Springel, Katalin & Gopal, Anand R., 2018. "Effectiveness of electric vehicle incentives in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 349-356.
    34. Du, Jiuyu & Li, Feiqiang & Li, Jianqiu & Wu, Xiaogang & Song, Ziyou & Zou, Yunfei & Ouyang, Minggao, 2019. "Evaluating the technological evolution of battery electric buses: China as a case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 309-319.
    35. Encarnação, Sara & Santos, Fernando P. & Santos, Francisco C. & Blass, Vered & Pacheco, Jorge M. & Portugali, Juval, 2018. "Paths to the adoption of electric vehicles: An evolutionary game theoretical approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 24-33.
    36. Hardman, Scott & Chandan, Amrit & Tal, Gil & Turrentine, Tom, 2017. "The effectiveness of financial purchase incentives for battery electric vehicles – A review of the evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1100-1111.
    37. Liu, Dunnan & Xiao, Bowen, 2018. "Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 8-23.
    38. Ji, Shou-feng & Zhao, Dan & Luo, Rong-juan, 2019. "Evolutionary game analysis on local governments and manufacturers' behavioral strategies: Impact of phasing out subsidies for new energy vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    39. Bamidele Victor Ayodele & Siti Indati Mustapa, 2020. "Life Cycle Cost Assessment of Electric Vehicles: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manzolli, Jônatas Augusto & Trovão, João Pedro & Antunes, Carlos Henggeler, 2022. "A review of electric bus vehicles research topics – Methods and trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Tong, Zihao & Hubacek, Klaus, 2022. "Strategies for applying carbon trading to the new energy vehicle market in China: An improved evolutionary game analysis for the bus industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    3. Alali, Layla & Niesten, Eva & Gagliardi, Dimitri, 2022. "The impact of UK financial incentives on the adoption of electric fleets: The moderation effect of GDP change," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 200-220.
    4. Yao, Xusheng & Shao, Zhiqi & Wang, Ze & Zhu, Zhu & Chen, Zuanxu & Wu, Qingyang, 2025. "Policy incentives and market mechanisms dual-driven framework for new energy vehicles promotion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    5. Hu, Xianfeng & Wang, Shanyong & Zhou, Rongting & Gao, Lan & Zhu, Zujun, 2023. "Policy driven or consumer trait driven? Unpacking the EVs purchase intention of consumers from the policy and consumer trait perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Liu, Songsong & Li, Tingting & Chen, Yurui & Lyu, Chang & Zhai, Fengyong, 2025. "Government subsidy strategies for new energy vehicle charging infrastructure considering consumers’ low-carbon preference: A tripartite evolutionary game model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    7. Martin Kalthaus & Jiatang Sun, 2021. "Determinants of Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 473-510, November.
    8. Austmann, Leonhard M., 2021. "Drivers of the electric vehicle market: A systematic literature review of empirical studies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    9. Kondev, Bozhil & Dixon, James & Zhou, Zhaoqi & Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Sultanaliev, Kanat & Hirmer, Stephanie A., 2023. "Putting the foot down: Accelerating EV uptake in Kyrgyzstan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-96.
    10. Wenhui Zhao & Yimeng Liu & Jiansheng Hou & Lifang Liu, 2023. "Impact of Carbon Trading Mechanism Considering Blockchain Technology on the Evolution of New Energy Vehicle Industry in the Post-Subsidy Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-18, September.
    11. Lee, Yong-Jin Alex & Nilsson, Isabelle, 2025. "Estimating the effect of a state-level charging infrastructure funding program on plug-in electric vehicle adoption," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Peng, Yuan & Bai, Xuemei, 2023. "What EV users say about policy efficacy: Evidence from Shanghai," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 16-26.
    13. Xiaohong Jiang & Xiucheng Guo, 2020. "Evaluation of Performance and Technological Characteristics of Battery Electric Logistics Vehicles: China as a Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, May.
    14. Srivastava, Abhishek & Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Chakraborty, Abhishek & Mateen, Arqum & Narayanamurthy, Gopalakrishnan, 2022. "Design and selection of government policies for electric vehicles adoption: A global perspective," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Gao, Yuhang & Zhang, Mimi & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Hao, Yan & Wu, Jinghui & Zhang, Lixiao, 2025. "ESG greenwashing behaviour in the electric vehicle supply chain: Insights from evolutionary game theory," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    16. Zhang, Junjie & Jia, Rongwen & Yang, Hangjun & Dong, Kangyin, 2022. "Does electric vehicle promotion in the public sector contribute to urban transport carbon emissions reduction?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 151-163.
    17. Dongpu Fu & Jiarui Sun & Cuiyou Yao & Fulei Shi, 2024. "The influence of policy incentives on the diffusion of battery-swapping taxis and stations: a coupled evolutionary game model in complex networks," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 26945-26969, October.
    18. Zhao, Dan & Ji, Shou-feng & Wang, He-ping & Jiang, Li-wen, 2021. "How do government subsidies promote new energy vehicle diffusion in the complex network context? A three-stage evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    19. Correia Sinézio Martins, Edlaine & Lépine, Julien & Corbett, Jacqueline, 2024. "Assessing the effectiveness of financial incentives on electric vehicle adoption in Europe: Multi-period difference-in-difference approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    20. Zhao, Chuan & Ma, Xuying & Wang, Kun, 2022. "The electric vehicle promotion in the cold-chain logistics under two-sided support policy: An evolutionary game perspective," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 14-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0967070x25003750. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.