IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v323y2025ics0360544225009879.html

A game-theoretic approach for the sustainable development of public bus fleet under government policies considering passenger behavior: A case study of China

Author

Listed:
  • Enayati, Erfan
  • Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza
  • Jafari, Hamed
  • Altmann, Jörn

Abstract

In recent years, with the increasing awareness and concerns about global warming and the adverse effects of greenhouse gases (GHGs), efforts have been made in public transportation to utilize electric buses (EBs) powered by electricity generated from renewable energy sources. This approach shows promising potential in decreasing GHG emissions and fossil fuels dependence in transport sector. In this research, a game model is established between different stakeholders in the field of public transportation, including passengers, public transport service providers (PTS), and bus manufacturers, with the aim of finding the best strategies for the sustainable development of the intercity public bus fleet under different government policies. Considering various government policies, the manufacturer maximizes its profit by determining the price of buses, the PTS tries to increase its income by determining the type and number of each type of bus, and passengers also choose the best travel mode. Additionally, sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effects of main parameters on equilibrium solutions. The novelty of this model lies in the combination of passengers' preferences to use either public transport or private cars and the problem of deciding the size of the public bus fleet. Analyses indicate that the cap-and-trade (C&T) policy cannot be a suitable replacement for the subsidy-and-tax policy under current conditions. Also, the results indicate that the best government policy from the bus manufacturer's perspective is no policy implementation (NI) by the government, and from the PTS's perspective, it is the policy of subsidies and taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Enayati, Erfan & Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Jafari, Hamed & Altmann, Jörn, 2025. "A game-theoretic approach for the sustainable development of public bus fleet under government policies considering passenger behavior: A case study of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:323:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225009879
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225009879
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.135345?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Cao, Yue & Huang, Chun-Yong & Li, Yongli, 2020. "Pricing strategies of domestic and imported electric vehicle manufacturers and the design of government subsidy and tariff policies," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Moon, Ilkyeong, 2021. "A game theoretic approach for analyzing electric and gasoline-based vehicles’ competition in a supply chain under government sustainable strategies: A case study of South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Yang, Shu & Cheng, Peng & Li, Jun & Wang, Shanyong, 2019. "Which group should policies target? Effects of incentive policies and product cognitions for electric vehicle adoption among Chinese consumers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Shao, Lulu & Yang, Jun & Zhang, Min, 2017. "Subsidy scheme or price discount scheme? Mass adoption of electric vehicles under different market structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1181-1195.
    5. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Li, Songrui, 2022. "How can personal carbon trading be applied in electric vehicle subsidies? A Stackelberg game method in private vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    6. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & van Ommeren, Jos N. & Koster, Paul & Rietveld, Piet, 2016. "Not fully charged: Welfare effects of tax incentives for employer-provided electric cars," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Li, Lin & Dababneh, Fadwa & Zhao, Jing, 2018. "Cost-effective supply chain for electric vehicle battery remanufacturing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 277-286.
    8. Rui Song & Wen Shi & Wanyi Qin & Xingjian Xue, 2023. "Exploring the interplay of new energy vehicle enterprises, consumers, and government in the context of the "dual carbon" target: An evolutionary game and simulation analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(9), pages 1-20, September.
    9. Hu, Jia-Wei & Javaid, Aneeque & Creutzig, Felix, 2021. "Leverage points for accelerating adoption of shared electric cars: Perceived benefits and environmental impact of NEVs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Han, Rong & Yu, Bi-Ying & Tang, Bao-Jun & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Carbon emissions quotas in the Chinese road transport sector: A carbon trading perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 298-309.
    11. Yang, Hangjun & Zhang, Anming, 2012. "Effects of high-speed rail and air transport competition on prices, profits and welfare," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1322-1333.
    12. Wadud, Zia & Chintakayala, Phani Kumar, 2019. "Personal Carbon Trading: Trade-off and Complementarity Between In-home and Transport Related Emissions Reduction," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 397-408.
    13. Xiangyang Yu & Xiaojing Wang, 2023. "Research on Carbon-Trading Model of Urban Public Transport Based on Blockchain Technology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Yan Yin & Fengcai Liu & Zhen Zhang, 2021. "Carbon Emission Reduction and Coordination Strategies for New Energy Vehicle Closed-Loop Supply Chain under the Carbon Trading Policy," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-17, July.
    15. Solaymani, Saeed, 2019. "CO2 emissions patterns in 7 top carbon emitter economies: The case of transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 989-1001.
    16. Zeyuan Song & Yingqi Liu & Hongwei Gao & Suxiu Li, 2020. "The Underlying Reasons behind the Development of Public Electric Buses in China: The Beijing Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, January.
    17. Orhan Topal & İsmail Nakir, 2018. "Total Cost of Ownership Based Economic Analysis of Diesel, CNG and Electric Bus Concepts for the Public Transport in Istanbul City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    18. Sun, Ya-Fang & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Su, Bin, 2022. "How does global transport sector improve the emissions reduction performance? A demand-side analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    19. Wentao Zhu & Mengwei Chen & Dianhai Wang & Dongfang Ma, 2018. "Policy-Combination Oriented Optimization for Public Transportation Based on the Game Theory," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-14, July.
    20. Zhu, Lijing & Wang, Peize & Zhang, Qi, 2019. "Indirect network effects in China’s electric vehicle diffusion under phasing out subsidies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    21. Songyan Ren & Peng Wang & Zewei Lin & Daiqing Zhao, 2022. "The Policy Choice and Economic Assessment of High Emissions Industries to Achieve the Carbon Peak Target under Energy Shortage—A Case Study of Guangdong Province," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-22, September.
    22. Ji, Shou-feng & Zhao, Dan & Luo, Rong-juan, 2019. "Evolutionary game analysis on local governments and manufacturers' behavioral strategies: Impact of phasing out subsidies for new energy vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    23. Ibarra-Rojas, O.J. & Delgado, F. & Giesen, R. & Muñoz, J.C., 2015. "Planning, operation, and control of bus transport systems: A literature review," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 38-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Haonan & Lee, C.K.M. & Ji, Ping & Zhao, Zhonghao, 2025. "Electric bus transition with leasing companies: An evolutionary game theory approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Tong, Zihao & Hubacek, Klaus, 2022. "Strategies for applying carbon trading to the new energy vehicle market in China: An improved evolutionary game analysis for the bus industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    2. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Li, Songrui, 2022. "How can personal carbon trading be applied in electric vehicle subsidies? A Stackelberg game method in private vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    3. Xiangyang Yu & Xiaojing Wang, 2023. "Research on Carbon-Trading Model of Urban Public Transport Based on Blockchain Technology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Wenhui Zhao & Yimeng Liu & Jiansheng Hou & Lifang Liu, 2023. "Impact of Carbon Trading Mechanism Considering Blockchain Technology on the Evolution of New Energy Vehicle Industry in the Post-Subsidy Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Zeng, Isabella Yunfei & Du, Chenmu & Xiong, Jianliang & Gong, Ting & Wu, Tian, 2024. "Tax policy or carbon emission quota: A theory on traditional ICEV transportation regulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    6. Yi, Yongxi & Zhang, Meng & Zhang, Aoxiang & Li, Yuqiong, 2024. "Can “dual credit” replace “subsidies” successfully? -based on analysis of vehicle supply chain decisions under the digital transformation of technology," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Moon, Ilkyeong, 2021. "A game theoretic approach for analyzing electric and gasoline-based vehicles’ competition in a supply chain under government sustainable strategies: A case study of South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Li, Yina & Liang, Chenchen & Ye, Fei & Zhao, Xiande, 2023. "Designing government subsidy schemes to promote the electric vehicle industry: A system dynamics model perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Wang, Jie & He, Ya-qun & Wang, Heng-guang & Wu, Ru-fei, 2023. "Low-carbon promotion of new energy vehicles: A quadrilateral evolutionary game," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    10. Wang, Haonan & Lee, C.K.M. & Ji, Ping & Zhao, Zhonghao, 2025. "Electric bus transition with leasing companies: An evolutionary game theory approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    11. Jing, Peng & Shao, Danning & Liu, Yaqi & Chen, Yuexia & Zhang, Shuang, 2025. "Linking short- and long-term impacts of the government, consumers, and manufacturers on NEV sales and market share in China," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    13. Sun, Ya-Fang & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Su, Bin, 2022. "Impact of government subsidy on the optimal R&D and advertising investment in the cooperative supply chain of new energy vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    14. Liu, Changyu & Song, Yadong & Wang, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "The governance of manufacturers’ greenwashing behaviors: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis of electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    15. Raka Jovanovic & Islam Safak Bayram & Sertac Bayhan & Stefan Voß, 2021. "A GRASP Approach for Solving Large-Scale Electric Bus Scheduling Problems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-23, October.
    16. Tang, Yanyan & Zhang, Qi & Li, Yaoming & Li, Hailong & Pan, Xunzhang & Mclellan, Benjamin, 2019. "The social-economic-environmental impacts of recycling retired EV batteries under reward-penalty mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    18. Srivastava, Abhishek & Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Chakraborty, Abhishek & Mateen, Arqum & Narayanamurthy, Gopalakrishnan, 2022. "Design and selection of government policies for electric vehicles adoption: A global perspective," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    19. Yuniaristanto, & Sutopo, Wahyudi & Hisjam, Muhammad & Wicaksono, Hendro, 2024. "Estimating the market share of electric motorcycles: A system dynamics approach with the policy mix and sustainable life cycle costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    20. Zhao, Dan & Ji, Shou-feng & Wang, He-ping & Jiang, Li-wen, 2021. "How do government subsidies promote new energy vehicle diffusion in the complex network context? A three-stage evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:323:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225009879. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.