Impact of risk perception and trust in autonomous vehicles on pedestrian crossing decision: Navigating the social-technological intersection with the ICLV model

In the rapidly evolving realm of transportation technology, the dynamic relationship between pedestrians and technological innovations has attained unprecedented importance. The complex social-technological intersection surrounding pedestrian road crossings has emerged as an attention for traffic safety. What distinguishes the contemporary urban environment is the rapid assimilation of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) into the transportation infrastructure, including technological elements such as autonomous vehicles, advanced surveillance systems, and smart infrastructure. To investigate how pedestrians perceive risks, trust technology, and make decisions in this era of technological progress, we designed a video-based questionnaire utilizing the stated preference (SP) methodology. We collected SP data from 589 Chinese pedestrians and employed an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model to quantify the influence of risk perception and trust in autonomous vehicle (trust in AV), treated as latent variables, on their crossing decisions. Our findings indicate that the presence of autonomous vehicles significantly affects pedestrian crossing decisions. Specifically, an increase in the approaching vehicle speed and a decrease in the approaching vehicle distance increase the pedestrians’ tendency to choose not to cross the road, and the latent variables of risk perception and trust in AV strongly predict this phenomenon. The results of the scenario analysis show that, compared with overall pedestrians, middle-aged pedestrians and high-risk perception-level pedestrians are more conservative in their crossing decisions, but high levels of trust in AV improve pedestrians’ willingness to cross the street. Additionally, the pedestrian-related findings of this study at the social-technological intersection provide better understanding of the decision process and contribute to the planning and development of urban intelligent transportation systems.