Electric vehicle adoption intention among paratransit owners and drivers in South Africa

Paratransit provides the majority of road transport in South Africa and many other countries in the sub-Saharan African region. However, perceptions of electric vehicles (EV) and the factors that influence intention to adopt EVs for the critical agents in this sector, vehicle owners and drivers, have yet to be explored. The aim of this study is to provide insights that can inform policies and strategies to promote EVs in the region. To achieve this, we collected 4452 survey responses from paratransit owners and drivers in South Africa. 38% of respondents expressed a willingness to purchase an EV when they become available. Using structural equation modeling, we test eleven hypotheses regarding the factors that influence EV adoption intention, based on an innovative integrated framework of consumer behavior. The results show that risk perceptions, environmental considerations and perception of cost have the strongest influence on EV adoption intention although many factors come into play, with ten out of the eleven hypotheses being supported. The most salient takeaway from the model output is that interventions that emphasize safety and business advantages of EVs will be the most effective at improving EV adoption intention, but that a diversity of thoughtful approaches will be necessary to ensure significant lasting change in this area. Finally, we use the coefficients from the structural model to simulate the effects of example interventions on EV adoption intention, and offer sensible guidelines for formulating targeted promotional strategies that will address the principal concerns of paratransit owners and drivers regarding EVs.