IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v206y2026ics0965856426000637.html

Rail infrastructure and road use: Causal evidence from the Gotthard base tunnel

Author

Listed:
  • Wallimann, Hannes
  • Von Arx, Widar
  • Hesse, Ann

Abstract

The opening of the Gotthard Base Tunnel, the longest railway tunnel in the world, marked a milestone in Swiss transport policy. The tunnel, a part of the New Rail Link through the Alps, serves as a key instrument of the so-called ”modal shift policy,” which aims to transfer transalpine freight traffic from road to rail. The reduction in travel time by train between northern and southern Switzerland raised expectations that a substantial share of tourist-oriented passenger traffic would also shift from car to rail, thereby reducing transport-related CO2 emissions from tourism. In this paper, we conduct a causal analysis of the impact of the Gotthard Base Tunnel’s opening at the end of 2016 on the number of cars using the parallel Gotthard motorway section in the subsequent years. To this end, we apply the synthetic control and synthetic difference-in-differences methods to construct a synthetic Gotthard motorway section based on a weighted combination of other alpine road crossings (a so-called donor pool) that did not experience the construction of a competing rail infrastructure. In summary, our results reveal only a modest but statistically significant decline in the number of cars between the actual and the synthetic Gotthard motorway in the short run. Given the consistently strong and increasing demand for the new rail connection through the Gotthard Base Tunnel, we infer a substantial induced short-run demand effect resulting from the rail travel time savings.

Suggested Citation

  • Wallimann, Hannes & Von Arx, Widar & Hesse, Ann, 2026. "Rail infrastructure and road use: Causal evidence from the Gotthard base tunnel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:206:y:2026:i:c:s0965856426000637
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2026.104922
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856426000637
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2026.104922?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin Blattler & Hannes Wallimann & Widar von Arx, 2024. "Free public transport to the destination: A causal analysis of tourists' travel mode choice," Papers 2401.14945, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Axhausen, Kay W. & Hess, Stephane & König, Arnd & Abay, Georg & Bates, John J. & Bierlaire, Michel, 2008. "Income and distance elasticities of values of travel time savings: New Swiss results," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 173-185, May.
    3. Vicente Inglada & GinÊs de Rus, 1997. "Cost-benefit analysis of the high-speed train in Spain," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 31(2), pages 175-188.
    4. Moshe Givoni & Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2013. "A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/152140, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Cascetta, Ennio & Papola, Andrea & Pagliara, Francesca & Marzano, Vittorio, 2011. "Analysis of mobility impacts of the high speed Rome–Naples rail link using withinday dynamic mode service choice models," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-643.
    6. Vickerman, Roger, 2015. "High-speed rail and regional development: the case of intermediate stations," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 157-165.
    7. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    8. Luisa Doerr & Florian Dorn & Stefanie Gaebler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "How new airport infrastructure promotes tourism: evidence from a synthetic control approach in German regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1402-1412, October.
    9. Wang, Jian & Du, Huanhuan & Lin, Kefu, 2025. "Substitution effects of high-speed railway on carbon mitigation: From theory to empirics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    10. Yuan Li & Martin Kleimann & Hans-Jörg Schmerer, 2021. "Estimating causal effects of BRI infrastructure projects based on the synthetic control method," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 103-129, December.
    11. Peeters, Paul & Dubois, Ghislain, 2010. "Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-457.
    12. Lavieri, Patrícia S. & Bhat, Chandra R., 2019. "Modeling individuals’ willingness to share trips with strangers in an autonomous vehicle future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 242-261.
    13. Wallimann, Hannes & Blättler, Kevin & von Arx, Widar, 2023. "Do price reductions attract customers in urban public transport? A synthetic control approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    14. Wallimann, Hannes, 2024. "Austria’s KlimaTicket: Assessing the short-term impact of a cheap nationwide travel pass on demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 201-214.
    15. Blättler, Kevin & Wallimann, Hannes & von Arx, Widar, 2024. "Free public transport to the destination: A causal analysis of tourists’ travel mode choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    16. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    17. Cheng, Yung-Hsiang, 2010. "High-speed rail in Taiwan: New experience and issues for future development," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 51-63, March.
    18. Adler, Nicole & Pels, Eric & Nash, Chris, 2010. "High-speed rail and air transport competition: Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 812-833, August.
    19. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Pozo-Barajas, Rafael & Trapero, Juan R., 2015. "Measuring the substitution effects between High Speed Rail and air transport in Spain," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-65.
    20. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    21. Hannes Wallimann, 2024. "Austria's KlimaTicket: Assessing the short-term impact of a cheap nationwide travel pass on demand," Papers 2401.06835, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    22. Zarabi, Zahra & Waygood, E. Owen D. & Olsson, Lars & Friman, Margareta & Gousse-Lessard, Anne-Sophie, 2024. "Enhancing public transport use: The influence of soft pull interventions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 190-203.
    23. Pablo Coto-Millán & Vicente Inglada & Belén Rey, 2007. "Effects of network economies in high-speed rail: the Spanish case," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 41(4), pages 911-925, December.
    24. Albalate, Daniel & León-Gómez, Carlos R., 2024. "High-Speed Rail: A game changer for Spanish motorway transport?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    25. Moshe Givoni & Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2013. "A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 720-742, November.
    26. Borsati, Mattia & Albalate, Daniel, 2020. "On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-164.
    27. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    28. Bursa, Bartosz & Mailer, Markus & Axhausen, Kay W., 2022. "Travel behavior on vacation: transport mode choice of tourists at destinations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 234-261.
    29. Pagliara, Francesca & La Pietra, Andrea & Gomez, Juan & Manuel Vassallo, José, 2015. "High Speed Rail and the tourism market: Evidence from the Madrid case study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 187-194.
    30. Erick Lahura & Rosario Sabrera, 2023. "The effect of infrastructure investment on tourism demand: a synthetic control approach for the case of Kuelap, Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 443-478, July.
    31. Olsson, Nils O.E. & Økland, Andreas & Halvorsen, Siri B., 2012. "Consequences of differences in cost-benefit methodology in railway infrastructure appraisal—A comparison between selected countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 29-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hannes Wallimann & Widar von Arx & Ann Hesse, 2025. "The Effect of the Gotthard Base Tunnel on Road Traffic: A Synthetic Control Approach," Papers 2505.21129, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    2. Wallimann, Hannes, 2024. "Austria’s KlimaTicket: Assessing the short-term impact of a cheap nationwide travel pass on demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 201-214.
    3. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Dehon, Catherine & Givoni, Moshe, 2014. "Does European high-speed rail affect the current level of air services? An EU-wide analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 461-475.
    4. Daniel Albalate & Germá Bel, 2015. "La experiencia internacional en alta velocidad ferroviaria," Working Papers 2015-02, FEDEA.
    5. Di Matteo, Dante & Mariotti, Ilaria & Rossi, Federica, 2023. "Transport infrastructure and economic performance: An evaluation of the Milan-Bologna high-speed rail corridor," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Daniel Albalate del sol, 2015. "Evaluating HSR availability on Tourism: Evidence from Spanish Provinces and Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa15p288, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Wallimann, Hannes & Blättler, Kevin & von Arx, Widar, 2023. "Do price reductions attract customers in urban public transport? A synthetic control approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Albalate, Daniel & Fageda, Xavier, 2016. "High speed rail and tourism: Empirical evidence from Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 174-185.
    9. Wallimann, Hannes & Sticher, Silvio, 2026. "The effect of structural changes in public-transportation tariff systems: a case study from Switzerland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    10. Albalate, Daniel & León-Gómez, Carlos R., 2024. "High-Speed Rail: A game changer for Spanish motorway transport?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    11. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    12. Zhentao Shi & Jin Xi & Haitian Xie, 2025. "A Synthetic Business Cycle Approach to Counterfactual Analysis with Nonstationary Macroeconomic Data," Papers 2505.22388, arXiv.org.
    13. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    14. Robert Messerle & Jonas Schreyögg, 2024. "Country-level effects of diagnosis-related groups: evidence from Germany’s comprehensive reform of hospital payments," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 25(6), pages 1013-1030, August.
    15. Garoupa, Nuno & Spruk, Rok, 2025. "Populist constitutional backsliding and judicial independence: Evidence from Türkiye," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Cho, Sang-Wook (Stanley) & Wong, Sally, 2025. "Monetary regimes and regional economies: A counterfactual perspective from two euro opt-outs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Borsati, Mattia & Albalate, Daniel, 2020. "On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-164.
    18. Watzinger, Martin & Schnitzer, Monika, 2022. "The Breakup of the Bell System and its Impact on US Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 17635, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    19. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2026. "Estimating Causal Effects With Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 356-382, June.
    20. Crudu, Federico & Di Stefano, Roberta & Mellace, Giovanni & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2024. "The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:206:y:2026:i:c:s0965856426000637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.