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Shifting Ground: A Counterfactual Analysis of Recovery in Earthquake-Affected Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Giulio Breglia

    (Gran Sasso Science Institute)

  • Marco Modica

    (Gran Sasso Science Institute)

Abstract

Disasters disrupt socio-economic systems unevenly, and their spatial im pacts are often derived from pre-existing territorial vulnerabilities. Given this evidence, this paper investigates the spatial dimensions of post-disaster recov ery by analysing the housing market in the aftermath of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. We adopted a two-stage methodology that combines the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and Diff-in-Diff (DiD) to evaluate recovery trajectories across six spatial categories, underlining spatial heterogeneity in recovery dy namics. The results reveal significant variation in the recovery patterns, with independent municipalities performing better than urban hamlets. This study underscores the importance of fine-grained spatial analysis for post-disaster pol icy design. These findings have significant implications for resilience planning and the development of targeted recovery strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Breglia & Marco Modica, 2026. "Shifting Ground: A Counterfactual Analysis of Recovery in Earthquake-Affected Regions," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2025-10, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Feb 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp72
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