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Industrial structure conditions economic resilience

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  • Duan, Wenqi
  • Madasi, Joseph David
  • Khurshid, Adnan
  • Ma, Dan

Abstract

This study investigates the importance of the industrial structure conditions in economic resilience. To analyse this correlation, we adopt the Lotka–Volterra model to develop a novel multi-dimensional nonlinear model to capture the dynamics of an industrial ecosystem structure. Reducing our complex model to a one-dimensional form does not lower its ability to predict the optimal conditions for robust economic resilience. This study contributes to the literature by investigating the influence of industrial structure and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic flexibility. Using 1995–2015 input–output transaction, exchange rate volatility and FDI data, the study is divided into three phases (before, during and after the global crisis) for empirical testing. The simulated numerical results reveal that industrial network characteristics can enhance resilience and circumvent economic collapse. Furthermore, upsurges in FDI and the degree of interaction strength can enhance economic resilience. Simultaneously, exchange rate volatility impedes industrial growth and suppresses system resilience. This study's results-based implications will help policymakers and business professionals to strengthen industrial systems' resilience against local and global crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Wenqi & Madasi, Joseph David & Khurshid, Adnan & Ma, Dan, 2022. "Industrial structure conditions economic resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:183:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522004656
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121944
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    Cited by:

    1. Olga A. Chernova, 2023. "The Resilience of Russia's Regions in the Conditions of Recovery Growth: Bouncing Forward or Bouncing Back?," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(2), pages 381-403.
    2. Haojun Wang & Xiao Su & Jun M. Liu, 2023. "The Spatial Spillover Effect of Logistics and Manufacturing Co-Agglomeration on Regional Economic Resilience: Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Evgeny V. Balatsky & Natalia A. Ekimova, 2023. "Antifragility of the national economy: A heuristic assessment," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 28-49, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Complex systems; Economic resilience; Industrial topology structure; Lotka–Volterra model; Reduction method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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