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Analysis and testing of electric car incentive scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway

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  • Deuten, Sebastiaan
  • Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J.
  • Thiel, Christian

Abstract

Past and future electric vehicle sales shares in the Netherlands and Norway are analysed with the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model. This system dynamics model was expanded to include the leading Norwegian car market and updated with recent data on policy incentives. Three model validation tests are discussed: the reproduction of past behaviour from 2010 till 2017, policy sensitivity, and feedback loop knock-out analysis. Findings point in the direction that regulation on emission targets for manufacturers are necessary for a transition away from new sales of fossil fuel-based vehicles. Only strong incentives resulted in large sales shares of zero emission vehicles in the Netherlands and Norway.

Suggested Citation

  • Deuten, Sebastiaan & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Thiel, Christian, 2020. "Analysis and testing of electric car incentive scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:151:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519301210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119847
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    5. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "The Role of Electric Vehicles in Road Transport Decarbonization: Exploring Environmental Impacts and Policy Implications through a Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Approaches," MPRA Paper 118596, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2023.
    6. Zhang, Jiahe & Qian, Yongsheng & Zeng, Junwei & Wei, Xuting & Li, Haijun, 2023. "Hybrid characteristics of heterogeneous traffic flow mixed with electric vehicles considering the amplitude of acceleration and deceleration," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 614(C).
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