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Fear itself. Is fear a determinant of the efficacy oflockdowns?

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  • Alfano, Vincenzo
  • Ercolano, Salvatore

Abstract

Among non-pharmaceutical measures for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most important is the implementation of lockdowns. The cost and effectiveness of this policy remains a much-debated topic in economics. In this study we investigate whether a ‘fear effect’ is at work in influencing the effectiveness of lockdowns. According to previous contributions on the topic, fear can increase protective habits, and for this reason we may imagine that a high number of COVID-19-caused deaths creates fear among the population, which may make people more likely to follow government prescriptions and observe lockdowns strictly. By means of a qualitative-quantitative analysis, we find that among the 46 countries that reported coronavirus-caused deaths before the implementation of a lockdown, the top quartile for per capita deaths has better results in terms of reducing new COVID-19 cases after a lockdown, compared to the worst quartile. This suggests that the number of reported deaths, as well as its communication to the population, are important determinants of the effectiveness of a lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2023. "Fear itself. Is fear a determinant of the efficacy oflockdowns?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s0038012123001568
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101644
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Does social capital enforce social distancing? The role of bridging and bonding social capital in the evolution of the pandemic," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 839-859, October.
    2. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2020. "The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 509-517, August.
    3. Aigner, Dennis J & Balestra, Pietro, 1988. "Optimal Experimental Design for Error Components Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 955-971, July.
    4. Alfano, Vincenzo & Capasso, Salvatore & Ercolano, Salvatore & Goel, Rajeev K., 2022. "Death takes no bribes: Impact of perceived corruption on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions at combating COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2022. "Stay at Home! Governance Quality and Effectiveness of Lockdown," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 101-123, January.
    6. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2021. "Social capital, quality of institutions and lockdown. Evidence from Italian provinces," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 31-41.
    7. Facundo Piguillem & Liyan Shi, 2022. "Optimal Covid-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2534-2562.
    8. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Work ethics, stay-at-home measures and COVID-19 diffusion," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(5), pages 893-901, July.
    10. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Pinto, Mauro, 2022. "Fighting the COVID pandemic: National policy choices in non-pharmaceutical interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 22-40.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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