IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v88y2023ics0038012123001568.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fear itself. Is fear a determinant of the efficacy oflockdowns?

Author

Listed:
  • Alfano, Vincenzo
  • Ercolano, Salvatore

Abstract

Among non-pharmaceutical measures for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most important is the implementation of lockdowns. The cost and effectiveness of this policy remains a much-debated topic in economics. In this study we investigate whether a ‘fear effect’ is at work in influencing the effectiveness of lockdowns. According to previous contributions on the topic, fear can increase protective habits, and for this reason we may imagine that a high number of COVID-19-caused deaths creates fear among the population, which may make people more likely to follow government prescriptions and observe lockdowns strictly. By means of a qualitative-quantitative analysis, we find that among the 46 countries that reported coronavirus-caused deaths before the implementation of a lockdown, the top quartile for per capita deaths has better results in terms of reducing new COVID-19 cases after a lockdown, compared to the worst quartile. This suggests that the number of reported deaths, as well as its communication to the population, are important determinants of the effectiveness of a lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2023. "Fear itself. Is fear a determinant of the efficacy oflockdowns?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s0038012123001568
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101644
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012123001568
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2023.101644?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2021. "Social capital, quality of institutions and lockdown. Evidence from Italian provinces," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 31-41.
    2. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Does social capital enforce social distancing? The role of bridging and bonding social capital in the evolution of the pandemic," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 839-859, October.
    3. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2020. "The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 509-517, August.
    4. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Aigner, Dennis J & Balestra, Pietro, 1988. "Optimal Experimental Design for Error Components Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 955-971, July.
    6. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Work ethics, stay-at-home measures and COVID-19 diffusion," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(5), pages 893-901, July.
    7. Alfano, Vincenzo & Capasso, Salvatore & Ercolano, Salvatore & Goel, Rajeev K., 2022. "Death takes no bribes: Impact of perceived corruption on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions at combating COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    8. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2022. "Stay at Home! Governance Quality and Effectiveness of Lockdown," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 101-123, January.
    9. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Pinto, Mauro, 2022. "Fighting the COVID pandemic: National policy choices in non-pharmaceutical interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 22-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alfano, Vincenzo & Capasso, Salvatore & Ercolano, Salvatore & Goel, Rajeev K., 2022. "Death takes no bribes: Impact of perceived corruption on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions at combating COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    2. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Pinto, Mauro, 2022. "Carrot and stick: Economic support and stringency policies in response to COVID-19," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2022. "Back to school or … back to lockdown? The effects of opening schools on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italian regions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    4. Lopez-Medoza, Hector & González-Álvarez, Maria A. & Montañés, Antonio, 2023. "Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," MPRA Paper 117826, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 503-523, June.
    6. Alfano, Vincenzo & Guarino, Massimo, 2023. "The effect of self-esteem on the spread of a pandemic. A cross-country analysis of the role played by self-esteem in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    7. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2023. "Measuring Tight and Loose Cultures across NUTS-2 Regions: The Regional Index of Looseness," CESifo Working Paper Series 10731, CESifo.
    8. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2022. "Stay at Home! Governance Quality and Effectiveness of Lockdown," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 101-123, January.
    9. Alfano, Vincenzo & Cicatiello, Lorenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2023. "Assessing the effectiveness of mandatory outdoor mask policy: The natural experiment of Campania," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano & Gaetano Vecchione, 2020. "Religious Attendance and Covid-19. Evidences from Italian Regions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8596, CESifo.
    11. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2023. "Aggressive COVID‐19 lockdown policies: What factors significantly drove them across nations?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 2211-2222, June.
    12. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2023. "The effectiveness of vaccination, testing, and lockdown strategies against COVID-19," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 585-607, December.
    13. Funke, Michael & Ho, Tai-kuang & Tsang, Andrew, 2023. "Containment measures during the COVID pandemic: The role of non-pharmaceutical health policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 90-102.
    14. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2021. "Social capital, quality of institutions and lockdown. Evidence from Italian provinces," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 31-41.
    15. Mingolla, Stefano & Lu, Zhongming, 2022. "Impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of stay-at-home requirement under the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from the Italian Case," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(6), pages 504-511.
    16. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Does social capital enforce social distancing? The role of bridging and bonding social capital in the evolution of the pandemic," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 839-859, October.
    17. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    18. Couch, Kenneth A. & Fairlie, Robert W. & Xu, Huanan, 2020. "Early evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    19. Shun-Yang Lee & Julian Runge & Daniel Yoo & Yakov Bart & Anett Gyurak & J. W. Schneider, 2023. "COVID-19 Demand Shocks Revisited: Did Advertising Technology Help Mitigate Adverse Consequences for Small and Midsize Businesses?," Papers 2307.09035, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    20. Juan C. Palomino & Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock on the labour market: poverty and inequality effects across Spanish regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(5), pages 814-828, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Coronavirus; Number of deaths; Public health compliance; Lockdown determinants; Spread of awareness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s0038012123001568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.