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Long term electricity consumption forecast in Brazil: A fuzzy logic approach

Author

Listed:
  • Torrini, Fabiano Castro
  • Souza, Reinaldo Castro
  • Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz
  • Moreira Pessanha, Jose Francisco

Abstract

The energy companies are always facing the challenge of producing more accurate load forecasts. A fuzzy logic methodology is proposed in order to extract rules from the input variables and provide Brazil's long-term annual electricity demand forecasts. In recent literature, the formulation of these types of models has been limited to treating the explanatory variables in the univariate form, or involving only the GDP. This study proposes an extension of this model, starting with population and the GDP additional value. The proposed model is compared with the official projections. The obtained results are quite promising.

Suggested Citation

  • Torrini, Fabiano Castro & Souza, Reinaldo Castro & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Moreira Pessanha, Jose Francisco, 2016. "Long term electricity consumption forecast in Brazil: A fuzzy logic approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 18-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:18-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2015.12.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kucukali, Serhat & Baris, Kemal, 2010. "Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2438-2445, May.
    2. Li, Der-Chiang & Chang, Che-Jung & Chen, Chien-Chih & Chen, Wen-Chih, 2012. "Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach—An Asian case," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 767-773.
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    1. repec:eee:energy:v:144:y:2018:i:c:p:776-788 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Forecasting; Energy; Fuzzy sets; Wang–Mendel;

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