IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v57y2016icp1270-1278.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Survey of the most influential parameters on the wind farm net present value (NPV) by adaptive neuro-fuzzy approach

Author

Listed:
  • Petković, Dalibor
  • Shamshirband, Shahaboddin
  • Kamsin, Amirrudin
  • Lee, Malrey
  • Anicic, Obrad
  • Nikolić, Vlastimir

Abstract

The main objective of wind farm modeling is to maximize wind farm efficiency. The optimal wind turbine placement on a wind farm could be modified by taking economic aspects into account. The net present value (NPV) is the most important criteria for project investment estimating. The general approach in deciding the distinctive choice for a task through NPV is to treat the money streams as known with conviction. Even little deviations from the decided beforehand values might effectively negate the choice. To assess the investment risk of wind power project, this paper constructed a process that selected the most influential wind farm parameters on the NPV with adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) method. This procedure is typically called variable selection, which corresponds to finding a subset of the full set of recorded variables that exhibits good predictive abilities. Variable seeking utilizing the ANFIS system was performed to figure out how the seven wind farm parameters affect the NPV of the wind farm.

Suggested Citation

  • Petković, Dalibor & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Kamsin, Amirrudin & Lee, Malrey & Anicic, Obrad & Nikolić, Vlastimir, 2016. "Survey of the most influential parameters on the wind farm net present value (NPV) by adaptive neuro-fuzzy approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1270-1278.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:1270-1278
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115015580
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.175?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pookpunt, Sittichoke & Ongsakul, Weerakorn, 2013. "Optimal placement of wind turbines within wind farm using binary particle swarm optimization with time-varying acceleration coefficients," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 266-276.
    2. Wiesemann, Wolfram & Kuhn, Daniel & Rustem, Berç, 2010. "Maximizing the net present value of a project under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 356-367, April.
    3. Hemmati, Reza & Hooshmand, Rahmat-Allah & Khodabakhshian, Amin, 2016. "Coordinated generation and transmission expansion planning in deregulated electricity market considering wind farms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 620-630.
    4. Yin, Peng-Yeng & Wang, Tai-Yuan, 2012. "A GRASP-VNS algorithm for optimal wind-turbine placement in wind farms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 489-498.
    5. Gollier, Christian, 2010. "Expected net present value, expected net future value, and the Ramsey rule," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 142-148, March.
    6. Saavedra-Moreno, B. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Paniagua-Tineo, A. & Prieto, L. & Portilla-Figueras, A., 2011. "Seeding evolutionary algorithms with heuristics for optimal wind turbines positioning in wind farms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2838-2844.
    7. Giri, B. C. & Dohi, T., 2004. "Optimal lot sizing for an unreliable production system based on net present value approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 157-167, November.
    8. Park, Jinkyoo & Law, Kincho H., 2015. "Layout optimization for maximizing wind farm power production using sequential convex programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 320-334.
    9. Girard, R. & Laquaine, K. & Kariniotakis, G., 2013. "Assessment of wind power predictability as a decision factor in the investment phase of wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 609-617.
    10. Yang, Ming & Nguyen, François & De T'Serclaes, Philippine & Buchner, Barbara, 2010. "Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1436-1447, March.
    11. Lin, Tyrone T., 2009. "Applying the maximum NPV rule with discounted/growth factors to a flexible production scale model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 628-634, July.
    12. Grady, S.A. & Hussaini, M.Y. & Abdullah, M.M., 2005. "Placement of wind turbines using genetic algorithms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 259-270.
    13. Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor & Anuar, Nor Badrul & Gani, Abdullah, 2014. "Adaptive neuro-fuzzy generalization of wind turbine wake added turbulence models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 270-276.
    14. Holopainen, Markus & Mäkinen, Antti & Rasinmäki, Jussi & Hyytiäinen, Kari & Bayazidi, Saeed & Pietilä, Ilona, 2010. "Comparison of various sources of uncertainty in stand-level net present value estimates," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 377-386, June.
    15. Pasqual, Joan & Padilla, Emilio & Jadotte, Evans, 2013. "Technical note: Equivalence of different profitability criteria with the net present value," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 205-210.
    16. Moghaddam, Iman Gerami & Nick, Mostafa & Fallahi, Farhad & Sanei, Mohsen & Mortazavi, Saeid, 2013. "Risk-averse profit-based optimal operation strategy of a combined wind farm–cascade hydro system in an electricity market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 252-259.
    17. Keswani, Aneel & Shackleton, Mark B., 2006. "How real option disinvestment flexibility augments project NPV," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 240-252, January.
    18. Naim, M.M. & Wikner, J. & Grubbström, R.W., 2007. "A net present value assessment of make-to-order and make-to-stock manufacturing systems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 524-532, October.
    19. Wagner, Markus & Day, Jareth & Neumann, Frank, 2013. "A fast and effective local search algorithm for optimizing the placement of wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 64-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandru Şerban & Nicoleta Bărbuţă-Mişu & Nicoleta Ciucescu & Simona Paraschiv & Spiru Paraschiv, 2016. "Economic and Environmental Analysis of Investing in Solar Water Heating Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Wang, Jianzhou & Dong, Yunxuan & Zhang, Kequan & Guo, Zhenhai, 2017. "A numerical model based on prior distribution fuzzy inference and neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 486-497.
    3. Marugán, Alberto Pliego & Márquez, Fausto Pedro García & Perez, Jesus María Pinar & Ruiz-Hernández, Diego, 2018. "A survey of artificial neural network in wind energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1822-1836.
    4. Aliashim Albani & Mohd Zamri Ibrahim & Che Mohd Imran Che Taib & Abd Aziz Azlina, 2017. "The Optimal Generation Cost-Based Tariff Rates for Onshore Wind Energy in Malaysia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Mehrbakhsh Nilashi & Fausto Cavallaro & Abbas Mardani & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Sarminah Samad & Othman Ibrahim, 2018. "Measuring Country Sustainability Performance Using Ensembles of Neuro-Fuzzy Technique," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. de Oliveira, Lucas Guedes & Aquila, Giancarlo & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo & de Paiva, Anderson Paulo & de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo & de Oliveira Pamplona, Edson & Camatta, Ulisses Pessin, 2020. "Evaluating economic feasibility and maximization of social welfare of photovoltaic projects developed for the Brazilian northeastern coast: An attribute agreement analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Li, Shoujun & Ma, Xiaoping & Yang, Chunyu, 2018. "A combined thermal power plant investment decision-making model based on intelligent fuzzy grey model and ito stochastic process and its application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1102-1117.
    8. Cuadra, L. & Ocampo-Estrella, I. & Alexandre, E. & Salcedo-Sanz, S., 2019. "A study on the impact of easements in the deployment of wind farms near airport facilities," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 566-588.
    9. Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Sheikh, Javad & Ahmadi, Mohammad Mahdi & Pham, Viet–Thanh & Jafari, Sajad, 2018. "Fuzzy predictive controller for chaotic flows based on continuous signals," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 349-354.
    10. Hafeznia, Hamed & Aslani, Alireza & Anwar, Sohail & Yousefjamali, Mahdis, 2017. "Analysis of the effectiveness of national renewable energy policies: A case of photovoltaic policies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 669-680.
    11. Wen, Hao & Sang, Song & Qiu, Chenhui & Du, Xiangrui & Zhu, Xiao & Shi, Qian, 2019. "A new optimization method of wind turbine airfoil performance based on Bessel equation and GABP artificial neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azlan, F. & Kurnia, J.C. & Tan, B.T. & Ismadi, M.-Z., 2021. "Review on optimisation methods of wind farm array under three classical wind condition problems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Yin, Peng-Yeng & Wu, Tsai-Hung & Hsu, Ping-Yi, 2017. "Simulation based risk management for multi-objective optimal wind turbine placement using MOEA/D," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 579-597.
    3. Hou, Peng & Hu, Weihao & Chen, Cong & Soltani, Mohsen & Chen, Zhe, 2016. "Optimization of offshore wind farm layout in restricted zones," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 487-496.
    4. Guirguis, David & Romero, David A. & Amon, Cristina H., 2016. "Toward efficient optimization of wind farm layouts: Utilizing exact gradient information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 110-123.
    5. Gao, Xiaoxia & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin, 2016. "Optimization of wind turbine layout position in a wind farm using a newly-developed two-dimensional wake model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 192-200.
    6. Yin, Peng-Yeng & Wu, Tsai-Hung & Hsu, Ping-Yi, 2017. "Risk management of wind farm micro-siting using an enhanced genetic algorithm with simulation optimization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 508-521.
    7. Parada, Leandro & Herrera, Carlos & Flores, Paulo & Parada, Victor, 2018. "Assessing the energy benefit of using a wind turbine micro-siting model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 591-601.
    8. Wang, Longyan & Cholette, Michael E. & Tan, Andy C.C. & Gu, Yuantong, 2017. "A computationally-efficient layout optimization method for real wind farms considering altitude variations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 147-159.
    9. Kyoungboo Yang & Kyungho Cho, 2019. "Simulated Annealing Algorithm for Wind Farm Layout Optimization: A Benchmark Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Yang, Kyoungboo & Kwak, Gyeongil & Cho, Kyungho & Huh, Jongchul, 2019. "Wind farm layout optimization for wake effect uniformity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 983-995.
    11. Kuo, Jim Y.J. & Romero, David A. & Beck, J. Christopher & Amon, Cristina H., 2016. "Wind farm layout optimization on complex terrains – Integrating a CFD wake model with mixed-integer programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 404-414.
    12. Dalibor Petković & Siti Hafizah Ab Hamid & Žarko Ćojbašić & Nenad T. Pavlović, 2014. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Adapting project management method and ANFIS strategy for variables selection and analyzing wind turbine wake effect," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 463-475, November.
    13. Guirguis, David & Romero, David A. & Amon, Cristina H., 2017. "Gradient-based multidisciplinary design of wind farms with continuous-variable formulations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 279-291.
    14. Feng, Ju & Shen, Wen Zhong, 2017. "Design optimization of offshore wind farms with multiple types of wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1283-1297.
    15. Hou, Peng & Hu, Weihao & Soltani, Mohsen & Chen, Cong & Chen, Zhe, 2017. "Combined optimization for offshore wind turbine micro siting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 271-282.
    16. Yin, Peng-Yeng & Cheng, Chun-Ying & Chen, Hsin-Min & Wu, Tsai-Hung, 2020. "Risk-aware optimal planning for a hybrid wind-solar farm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 290-302.
    17. Sun, Haiying & Yang, Hongxing & Gao, Xiaoxia, 2019. "Investigation into spacing restriction and layout optimization of wind farm with multiple types of wind turbines," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 637-650.
    18. Nicolas Kirchner-Bossi & Fernando Porté-Agel, 2018. "Realistic Wind Farm Layout Optimization through Genetic Algorithms Using a Gaussian Wake Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, November.
    19. Serrano González, Javier & Burgos Payán, Manuel & Santos, Jesús Manuel Riquelme & González-Longatt, Francisco, 2014. "A review and recent developments in the optimal wind-turbine micro-siting problem," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-144.
    20. Muhammad Nabeel Hussain & Nadeem Shaukat & Ammar Ahmad & Muhammad Abid & Abrar Hashmi & Zohreh Rajabi & Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq, 2022. "Effective Realization of Multi-Objective Elitist Teaching–Learning Based Optimization Technique for the Micro-Siting of Wind Turbines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-24, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:1270-1278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.