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Heat load prediction in district heating systems with adaptive neuro-fuzzy method

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  • Shamshirband, Shahaboddin
  • Petković, Dalibor
  • Enayatifar, Rasul
  • Hanan Abdullah, Abdul
  • Marković, Dušan
  • Lee, Malrey
  • Ahmad, Rodina

Abstract

District heating systems can play significant role in achieving stringent targets for CO2 emissions with concurrent increase in fuel efficiency. However, there are a lot of the potentials for future improvement of their operation. One of the potential domains is control and prediction. Control of the most district heating systems is feed forward without any feedback from consumers. With reliable predictions of consumers heat need, production could be altered to match the real consumers’ needs. This will have effect on lowering the distribution cost, heat losses and especially on lowered return secondary and primary temperature which will result in increase of overall efficiency of combined heat and power plants. In this paper, to predict the heat load for individual consumers in district heating systems, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferences system (ANFIS) was constructed. Simulation results indicate that further improvements on model are needed especially for prediction horizons greater than 1h.

Suggested Citation

  • Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor & Enayatifar, Rasul & Hanan Abdullah, Abdul & Marković, Dušan & Lee, Malrey & Ahmad, Rodina, 2015. "Heat load prediction in district heating systems with adaptive neuro-fuzzy method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 760-767.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:760-767
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.020
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    2. Sayegh, M.A. & Danielewicz, J. & Nannou, T. & Miniewicz, M. & Jadwiszczak, P. & Piekarska, K. & Jouhara, H., 2017. "Trends of European research and development in district heating technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1183-1192.
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    6. Vogler–Finck, P.J.C. & Bacher, P. & Madsen, H., 2017. "Online short-term forecast of greenhouse heat load using a weather forecast service," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1298-1310.
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    12. Michael-Allan Millar & Neil M. Burnside & Zhibin Yu, 2019. "District Heating Challenges for the UK," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Ferrari, Simone & Zagarella, Federica & Caputo, Paola & D'Amico, Antonino, 2019. "Results of a literature review on methods for estimating buildings energy demand at district level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1130-1137.
    14. Gu, Jihao & Wang, Jin & Qi, Chengying & Min, Chunhua & Sundén, Bengt, 2018. "Medium-term heat load prediction for an existing residential building based on a wireless on-off control system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 709-718.
    15. Xue, Guixiang & Qi, Chengying & Li, Han & Kong, Xiangfei & Song, Jiancai, 2020. "Heating load prediction based on attention long short term memory: A case study of Xingtai," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
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    17. Tsai, Sang-Bing & Xue, Youzhi & Zhang, Jianyu & Chen, Quan & Liu, Yubin & Zhou, Jie & Dong, Weiwei, 2017. "Models for forecasting growth trends in renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1169-1178.
    18. Sun, Chunhua & Liu, Yiting & Cao, Shanshan & Chen, Jiali & Xia, Guoqiang & Wu, Xiangdong, 2022. "Identification of control regularity of heating stations based on cross-correlation function dynamic time delay method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    19. Guo, Yabin & Wang, Jiangyu & Chen, Huanxin & Li, Guannan & Liu, Jiangyan & Xu, Chengliang & Huang, Ronggeng & Huang, Yao, 2018. "Machine learning-based thermal response time ahead energy demand prediction for building heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 16-27.
    20. Triebs, Merlin Sebastian & Tsatsaronis, George, 2022. "From heat demand to heat supply: How to obtain more accurate feed-in time series for district heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    21. Hribar, Rok & Potočnik, Primož & Šilc, Jurij & Papa, Gregor, 2019. "A comparison of models for forecasting the residential natural gas demand of an urban area," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 511-522.
    22. Nadia Jahanafroozi & Saman Shokrpour & Fatemeh Nejati & Omrane Benjeddou & Mohammad Worya Khordehbinan & Afshin Marani & Moncef L. Nehdi, 2022. "New Heuristic Methods for Sustainable Energy Performance Analysis of HVAC Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-14, November.

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