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Conflict resolution between energy production and agricultural demand in a transboundary river

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  • Moridi, Ali
  • Rafipour, Matin
  • Hatamkhani, Amir
  • Haghighi, Ali Torabi

Abstract

The construction of the Rogun Dam on the Vakhsh River, a primary tributary of the Amu Darya, raises concerns about the future of agriculture in downstream countries. These concerns stem from the potential mismatch in the timely release of water needed for downstream agricultural demands due to the upstream energy sector's priorities. This study addresses the reliability of downstream agricultural water supply during summer while also considering the need for winter energy generation to meet upstream energy demand by employing a simulation-optimization approach. To this end, the multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOSO) was integrated with a WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model. The resulting Pareto Front illustrates the trade-offs between upstream hydropower production and downstream agricultural demand. The results indicate that, at the highest energy production levels in winter, the reliability of meeting downstream agricultural demand decreased by 40 %. Conversely, when the design and operation of the Rogun Dam prioritizes downstream agricultural demand, winter energy production decreases by 50 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Moridi, Ali & Rafipour, Matin & Hatamkhani, Amir & Haghighi, Ali Torabi, 2025. "Conflict resolution between energy production and agricultural demand in a transboundary river," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:255:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125014557
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123793
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    References listed on IDEAS

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