IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v220y2024ics0960148123015343.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research topic identification and trend prediction of China's energy policy: A combined LDA-ARIMA approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zou, Tong
  • Guo, Pibin
  • Li, Fanrong
  • Wu, Qinglong

Abstract

Identifying the research topics of China's energy transition policy and predicting future research trends are crucial for policymakers to make informed decisions and advance the energy transition. This study applied the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to extract 26 major research topics from the 13,976 abstracts of Chinese policy research papers in web of science (WOS), conceptualized the five most popular topics and used the ARIMA model to predict trends over the next 36 months. The results show that except for Economic and Environmental Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption (Topic13), which will first experience unanticipated fluctuations and then show strong growth capacity, all other topics will continue to remain positive growth trend. Research and Development (Topic3) is driven by the urgency of China's energy transformation. Economic and Environmental Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption (Topic13) is driven by the potential for the development of renewable energy. Economic Impact of Climate Change (Topic26) is driven by the climate change debate. Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Energy Consumption (Topic7) is driven by a discussion of their relationship and the mechanisms influencing them. Regional Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (Topic19) is driven by regional differences in China's energy policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zou, Tong & Guo, Pibin & Li, Fanrong & Wu, Qinglong, 2024. "Research topic identification and trend prediction of China's energy policy: A combined LDA-ARIMA approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:220:y:2024:i:c:s0960148123015343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.119619
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148123015343
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119619?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guilhot, Laëtitia, 2022. "An analysis of China's energy policy from 1981 to 2020: Transitioning towards to a diversified and low-carbon energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    3. Gong, Xu & Wang, You & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Assessing dynamic China’s energy security: Based on functional data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Yabo Zhao & Shaojian Wang, 2015. "The Relationship between Urbanization, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China: An Econometric Perspective Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Yang, Zhenbing & Fan, Meiting & Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili, 2017. "Does carbon intensity constraint policy improve industrial green production performance in China? A quasi-DID analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 271-282.
    6. Lin, Boqiang & Du, Kerui, 2013. "Technology gap and China's regional energy efficiency: A parametric metafrontier approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 529-536.
    7. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    8. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jian & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Green growth: The economic impacts of large-scale renewable energy development in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 435-449.
    9. Wang, Bing & Wang, Qian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Li, Zhi-Ping, 2018. "Role of renewable energy in China’s energy security and climate change mitigation: An index decomposition analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 187-194.
    10. Zhao, Xu & Luo, Dongkun, 2017. "Driving force of rising renewable energy in China: Environment, regulation and employment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 48-56.
    11. Lo, Kevin, 2014. "A critical review of China's rapidly developing renewable energy and energy efficiency policies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 508-516.
    12. Dong, Kangyin & Ren, Xiaohang & Zhao, Jun, 2021. "How does low-carbon energy transition alleviate energy poverty in China? A nonparametric panel causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    13. Laëtitia Guilhot, 2022. "An analysis of China's energy policy from 1981 to 2020: Transitioning towards to a diversified and low-carbon energy system," Post-Print halshs-03548757, HAL.
    14. Duan, Hongbo & Yuan, Deyu & Cai, Zongwu & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Valuing the impact of climate change on China’s economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 155-174.
    15. Yuan, Xueliang & Zuo, Jian, 2011. "Transition to low carbon energy policies in China--from the Five-Year Plan perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3855-3859, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Hai-jie & Tang, Kai, 2023. "Extreme climate, innovative ability and energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Zhang, Xi & Geng, Yong & Shao, Shuai & Dong, Huijuan & Wu, Rui & Yao, Tianli & Song, Jiekun, 2020. "How to achieve China’s CO2 emission reduction targets by provincial efforts? – An analysis based on generalized Divisia index and dynamic scenario simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Xu, Xiaofeng & Cui, Xiaodan & Chen, Xiangyu & Zhou, Yichen, 2022. "Impact of government subsidies on the innovation performance of the photovoltaic industry: Based on the moderating effect of carbon trading prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    5. McCauley, Darren & Pettigrew, Kerry, 2023. "Building a just transition in asia-pacific: Four strategies for reducing fossil fuel dependence and investing in clean energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    6. Hongbo Duan & Gupeng Zhang & Shouyang Wang & Ying Fan, 2018. "Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emission control costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 387-403, March.
    7. Luca Gerotto & Paolo Pellizzari, 2021. "A replication of Pindyck’s willingness to pay: on the efforts required to obtain results," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(5), pages 1-25, May.
    8. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Do we really understand the development of China's new energy industry?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 733-745.
    9. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    10. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    11. Tobias Kranz & Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Climate Change: Challenges and the Role of Major Central Banks," Research Papers in Economics 2024-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    12. Haroon Mumtaz & Fulvia Marotta, 2023. "Vulnerability to Climate Change: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers 961, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Franziska Piontek & Matthias Kalkuhl & Elmar Kriegler & Anselm Schultes & Marian Leimbach & Ottmar Edenhofer & Nico Bauer, 2019. "Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1357-1385, August.
    14. Cui, Qi & He, Ling & Han, Guoyi & Chen, Hao & Cao, Juanjuan, 2020. "Review on climate and water resource implications of reducing renewable power curtailment in China: A nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    15. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    16. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "The Economic Impact of Climate in the Long Run," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 1, pages 3-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    18. Shuguang Liu & Jiayi Wang & Yin Long, 2023. "Research into the Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Technological Innovation in China’s Natural Gas Industry from the Perspective of Energy Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-34, April.
    19. Karine Constant & Marion Davin, 2019. "Unequal Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Transmission of Adverse Effects Through International Trade," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 727-759, October.
    20. Brantley Liddle, 2018. "Warming And Income Growth In The United States: A Heterogeneous, Common Factor Dynamic Panel Analysis," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(04), pages 1-14, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:220:y:2024:i:c:s0960148123015343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.