Roads, transit and spatial patterns of urbanization in São Paulo: Evidence from the second half of the twentieth century

This article presents evidence of distinct long-term impacts from road and rail infrastructures on urban outgrowth and densification in São Paulo, Brazil (1947–1997) within a Global South context. Using long-difference ordinary least squares models and an instrumental variable approach, we find that the construction of avenues and arterial roads across urbanized areas drove urban expansion and accounted for forty percent of the outgrowth during this 50-year period. In contrast, rail transit investments fostered vertical neighborhood development responsible for one-third of the increase in floor area ratio, while also promoting land use specialization by attracting commercial buildings to central areas and stimulating residential real estate development in peripheral zones. Our findings align with patterns observed in the Global North, reinforcing the broader relationship between transportation investments and urban form.