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Developing Densely: Estimating the Effect of Subway Growth on New York City Land Uses

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In the early 20th Century New York City grew rapidly in population and developed area. The subway system grew rapidly to accommodate this new growth, but also as a concerted effort to decentralize the city away from lower Manhattan. This paper explores the co-development of the subway system and residential and commercial land uses using Granger causality models in order to determine if transit growth led residential and commercial development or if subway expansion occurred as a reaction to residential and commercial densities. The results suggest that the subway network developed in an orderly fashion and grew densest in areas where development had already occurred while lagged station densities were a weak predictor of residential and commercial densities. The implications of land use regulations and transit network density on residential and commercial land uses are discussed as are applications to contemporary planning debates.

Suggested Citation

  • King, David, 2011. "Developing Densely: Estimating the Effect of Subway Growth on New York City Land Uses," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 4(2), pages 19-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jtralu:0062
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    1. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    2. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    3. repec:ucp:bkecon:9781884829987 is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Xinhai Lu & Mengcheng Wang & Yifeng Tang, 2021. "The Spatial Changes of Transportation Infrastructure and Its Threshold Effects on Urban Land Use Efficiency: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Ibraeva, Anna & Correia, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida & Silva, Cecília & Antunes, António Pais, 2020. "Transit-oriented development: A review of research achievements and challenges," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 110-130.
    3. Papa, Enrica & Bertolini, Luca, 2015. "Accessibility and Transit-Oriented Development in European metropolitan areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-83.
    4. Levinson, David, 2011. "The Coevolution of Transport and Land Use: An Introduction to the Special Issue and an Outline of a Research Agenda," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 4(2), pages 1-3.
    5. Dröes, Martijn I. & Rietveld, Piet, 2015. "Rail-based public transport and urban spatial structure: The interplay between network design, congestion and urban form," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 421-439.
    6. King, David A. & Fischer, Lauren Ames, 2016. "Streetcar projects as spatial planning: A shift in transport planning in the United States," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 383-390.
    7. Haibing Jiang & David Levinson, 2016. "Accessibility and the Evaluation of Investments on the Beijing Subway," Working Papers 000146, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    8. Dena Kasraian & Kees Maat & Dominic Stead & Bert van Wee, 2016. "Long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks on land-use change: an international review of empirical studies," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 772-792, November.
    9. Jean-Philippe Meloche & Vincent Trotignon & François Vaillancourt, 2021. "Densification ou prolongement des réseaux de transport structurants ? Une recension des écrits sur les coûts et les bénéfices attendus," CIRANO Project Reports 2020rp-28, CIRANO.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subways; land use; density; New York City; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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