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Portfolio optimization of safety measures for reducing risks in nuclear systems

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  • Mancuso, A.
  • Compare, M.
  • Salo, A.
  • Zio, E.

Abstract

In the framework of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), we develop a method to support the selection of cost-effective portfolios of safety measures. This method provides a systemic approach to determining the optimal portfolio of safety measures that minimizes the risk of the system and thus provides an alternative to using risk importance measures for guiding the selection of safety measures. We represent combinations of events leading to system failure with Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) which can be derived from traditional Fault Trees (FTs) and are capable of encoding event dependencies and multi-state failure behaviours. We also develop a computationally efficient enumeration algorithm to identify which combinations (portfolios) of safety measures minimize the risk of failure at different costs of implementing the safety measures. The method is illustrated by revisiting an earlier case study concerning the airlock system of a CANDU Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The comparison of results with those of choosing safety measures based on risk importance measures shows that our approach leads to considerably lower residual risk at different cost levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Mancuso, A. & Compare, M. & Salo, A. & Zio, E., 2017. "Portfolio optimization of safety measures for reducing risks in nuclear systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 20-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:167:y:2017:i:c:p:20-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tosoni, E. & Salo, A. & Govaerts, J. & Zio, E., 2019. "Comprehensiveness of scenarios in the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 561-573.
    2. Hong Xu & Baorui Zhang, 2022. "Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategy for Nuclear Safety: Opportunities and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Moharamzadeh, Alireza & Abrahamsen, Håkon Bjorheim & Asche, Frank & Heide, Bjørnar & Milazzo, Maria Francesca, 2018. "Are too many safety measures crowding each other out?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 108-113.
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    5. Zuo, Fei & Zio, Enrico & Xu, Yue, 2023. "Bi-objective optimization of the scheduling of risk-related resources for risk response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    6. Mancuso, A. & Compare, M. & Salo, A. & Zio, E., 2019. "Portfolio optimization of safety measures for the prevention of time-dependent accident scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Fan, Lin & Su, Huai & Wang, Wei & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Li & Yang, Zhaoming & Peng, Shiliang & Yu, Weichao & Zuo, Lili & Zhang, Jinjun, 2022. "A systematic method for the optimization of gas supply reliability in natural gas pipeline network based on Bayesian networks and deep reinforcement learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    8. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Cho, Jaehyun & Han, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Identification of Risk-Significant Components in Nuclear Power Plants to Reduce Cs-137 Radioactive Risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    10. Dimaio, F. & Scapinello, O. & Zio, E. & Ciarapica, C. & Cincotta, S. & Crivellari, A. & Decarli, L. & Larosa, L., 2021. "Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Compare, Michele & Bellani, Luca & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "Optimal allocation of prognostics and health management capabilities to improve the reliability of a power transmission network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 164-180.
    12. Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti & Keisler, Jeffrey M. & Morton, Alec, 2021. "Portfolio decision analysis: Recent developments and future prospects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 811-825.

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