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Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case of indium in CIGS solar cells

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  • Stamp, Anna
  • Wäger, Patrick A.
  • Hellweg, Stefanie

Abstract

Some renewable energy technologies rely on the functionalities provided by geochemically scarce metals. One example are CIGS solar cells, an emerging thin film photovoltaic technology, which contain indium. In this study we model global future indium demand related to the implementation of various energy scenarios and assess implications for the supply system. Influencing parameters of the demand model are either static or dynamic and include technology shares, technological progress and handling in the anthroposphere. Parameters’ levels reflect pessimistic, reference, and optimistic development. The demand from other indium containing products is roughly estimated. For the reference case, the installed capacity of CIGS solar cells ranges from 12 to 387GW in 2030 (31–1401GW in 2050), depending on the energy scenario chosen. This translates to between 485 and 15,724tonnes of primary indium needed from 2000 to 2030 (789–30,556tonnes through 2050). One scenario exemplifies that optimistic assumptions for technological progress and handling in the anthroposphere can reduce cumulative primary indium demand by 43% until 2050 compared to the reference case, while with pessimistic assumptions the demand increases by about a factor of five. To meet the future indium demand, several options to increase supply are discussed: (1) expansion of zinc metal provision (indium is currently a by-product of zinc mining), (2) improving extraction efficiency, (3) new mining activities where indium is a by-product of other metals and (4) mining of historic residues. Potential future constraints and environmental impacts of these supply options are also briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stamp, Anna & Wäger, Patrick A. & Hellweg, Stefanie, 2014. "Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case of indium in CIGS solar cells," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 156-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:93:y:2014:i:c:p:156-167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.10.012
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    3. Antoine Boubault & Nadia Maïzi, 2019. "Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Ester Van der Voet & Lauran Van Oers & Miranda Verboon & Koen Kuipers, 2019. "Environmental Implications of Future Demand Scenarios for Metals: Methodology and Application to the Case of Seven Major Metals," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(1), pages 141-155, February.
    5. Ozawa, Akito & Morimoto, Shinichirou & Hatayama, Hiroki & Anzai, Yurie, 2023. "Energy–materials nexus of electrified vehicle penetration in Japan: A study on energy transition and cobalt flow," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    6. Choi, Chul Hun & Cao, Jinjian & Zhao, Fu, 2016. "System Dynamics Modeling of Indium Material Flows under Wide Deployment of Clean Energy Technologies," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 59-71.

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