IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v384y2025ics0306261925001898.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal evolution of decommissioned photovoltaic distribution and integrated energy-economic-environmental-social sustainable benefit assessment in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Jianli
  • Xu, Zihan
  • He, Juan
  • Liu, Dandan
  • Wang, Yaqi
  • Yang, Cheng
  • Zhong, Zhiming
  • Wu, Yunna

Abstract

A clear and detailed understanding of the temporal and spatial distribution of decommissioned photovoltaic (PV) systems in China, combined with a comprehensive evaluation of the sustainability benefits related to recycling and reusing these decommissioned PV components, is crucial for effectively addressing the upcoming wave of PV decommissioning in the country. There is currently insufficient research on the temporal and spatial distribution of decommissioned PV in China and its recycling. This study constructs a prediction model using random forest and BP neural network methods, characterizing the temporal and spatial evolution from 2024 to 2050 under eight scenarios. A comprehensive assessment of sustainable benefits is conducted from energy, economy, environment, and society dimensions. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)-Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC)-Multi-Attribute Based Analytic Compromise (MABAC) method ranks the comprehensive sustainability benefits of decommissioned PV recycling in each province. Results show that by 2050, decommissioned PV will range from 8.32E+10 to 1.65E+11 kg (670 to 1600 GW), or 1 to 3 times the current installed capacity. By 2030, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Gansu will be the main decommissioning areas. After 2040, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and other areas will be the main decommissioning regions. Recycling decommissioned PV will save 1.49E+15 to 3.58E+15 MJ of primary energy, create a trillion-level market, reduce GWP by 3.81E+11 to 9.11E+11 kg CO2 eq, and create millions of jobs. Shandong Province has the highest sustainable benefits. These studies provide detailed data, theoretical support, and methodological thinking for policy formulation. The research is applicable to other countries facing decommissioned PV disposal.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Jianli & Xu, Zihan & He, Juan & Liu, Dandan & Wang, Yaqi & Yang, Cheng & Zhong, Zhiming & Wu, Yunna, 2025. "Spatiotemporal evolution of decommissioned photovoltaic distribution and integrated energy-economic-environmental-social sustainable benefit assessment in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 384(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:384:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925001898
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261925001898
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125459?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ornella Malandrino & Daniela Sica & Mario Testa & Stefania Supino, 2017. "Policies and Measures for Sustainable Management of Solar Panel End-of-Life in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Vellini, Michela & Gambini, Marco & Prattella, Valentina, 2017. "Environmental impacts of PV technology throughout the life cycle: Importance of the end-of-life management for Si-panels and CdTe-panels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1099-1111.
    3. Colarossi, Daniele & Tagliolini, Eleonora & Amato, Alessia & Principi, Paolo, 2022. "Life cycle assessment and circularity evaluation of a PV panel integrated with phase change material," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P2), pages 150-156.
    4. Pietruszko, Stanislaw M., 2003. "Photovoltaics in Poland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 169-175, January.
    5. Majewski, Peter & Al-shammari, Weam & Dudley, Michael & Jit, Joytishna & Lee, Sang-Heon & Myoung-Kug, Kim & Sung-Jim, Kim, 2021. "Recycling of solar PV panels- product stewardship and regulatory approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Stamp, Anna & Wäger, Patrick A. & Hellweg, Stefanie, 2014. "Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case of indium in CIGS solar cells," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 156-167.
    7. Libo Zhang & Qian Du & Dequn Zhou, 2021. "Grid Parity Analysis of China’s Centralized Photovoltaic Generation under Multiple Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Baur, Lucia & Uriona M., Mauricio, 2018. "Diffusion of photovoltaic technology in Germany: A sustainable success or an illusion driven by guaranteed feed-in tariffs?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 289-298.
    9. Goe, Michele & Gaustad, Gabrielle, 2014. "Strengthening the case for recycling photovoltaics: An energy payback analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 41-48.
    10. Domínguez, Adriana & Geyer, Roland, 2017. "Photovoltaic waste assessment in Mexico," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 29-41.
    11. Shen, Lu & Li, Zhenpeng & Ma, Tao, 2020. "Analysis of the power loss and quantification of the energy distribution in PV module," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    12. Vaziri Rad, Mohammad Amin & Forootan Fard, Habib & Khazanedari, Kian & Toopshekan, Ashkan & Ourang, Shiva & Khanali, Majid & Gorjian, Shiva & Fereidooni, Leila & Kasaeian, Alibakhsh, 2024. "A global framework for maximizing sustainable development indexes in agri-photovoltaic-based renewable systems: Integrating DEMATEL, ANP, and MCDM methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    13. Jasleen Kaur Daljit Singh & Georgina Molinari & Jonathan Bui & Behdad Soltani & Gobinath Pillai Rajarathnam & Ali Abbas, 2021. "Life Cycle Assessment of Disposed and Recycled End-of-Life Photovoltaic Panels in Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-16, October.
    14. Yuzhuo Zhang & Xingang Zhao & Yi Zuo & Lingzhi Ren & Ling Wang, 2017. "The Development of the Renewable Energy Power Industry under Feed-In Tariff and Renewable Portfolio Standard: A Case Study of China’s Photovoltaic Power Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, March.
    15. Yijing Wang & Rong Wang & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Josep Penuelas & Yves Balkanski & Jordi Sardans & Didier Hauglustaine & Wang Liu & Xiaofan Xing & Jiarong Li & Siqing Xu & Yuankang Xiong , 2023. "Accelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 619(7971), pages 761-767, July.
    16. Zhou, Jianli & Liu, Dandan & Sha, Ru & Sun, Jingbing & Wang, Yubao & Wu, Yunna, 2024. "Geospatial simulation and decision optimization towards identifying the layout suitability and priority for wind-photovoltaic-hydrogen-ammonia project: An empirical study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    17. Erdogan, Nuh & Pamucar, Dragan & Kucuksari, Sadik & Deveci, Muhammet, 2021. "An integrated multi-objective optimization and multi-criteria decision-making model for optimal planning of workplace charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    18. Ansanelli, G. & Fiorentino, G. & Tammaro, M. & Zucaro, A., 2021. "A Life Cycle Assessment of a recovery process from End-of-Life Photovoltaic Panels," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    19. Garvin A. Heath & Timothy J. Silverman & Michael Kempe & Michael Deceglie & Dwarakanath Ravikumar & Timothy Remo & Hao Cui & Parikhit Sinha & Cara Libby & Stephanie Shaw & Keiichi Komoto & Karsten Wam, 2020. "Research and development priorities for silicon photovoltaic module recycling to support a circular economy," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 502-510, July.
    20. Preeti Nain & Arun Kumar, 2023. "Understanding manufacturers’ and consumers’ perspectives towards end-of-life solar photovoltaic waste management and recycling," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2264-2284, March.
    21. Kinally, Christopher & Antonanzas-Torres, Fernando & Podd, Frank & Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro, 2024. "Life cycle assessment of solar home system informal waste management practices in Malawi," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    22. Tutak, Magdalena & Brodny, Jarosław, 2022. "Analysis of the level of energy security in the three seas initiative countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    23. Arrieta-Prieto, Mario & Schell, Kristen R., 2024. "Spatially transferable machine learning wind power prediction models: v−logit random forests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    24. D'Agostino, Diana & De Falco, Francesco & Minelli, Federico & Minichiello, Francesco, 2024. "New robust multi-criteria decision-making framework for thermal insulation of buildings under conflicting stakeholder interests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    25. Alphan, Hakan, 2024. "Incorporating visibility information into multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) for wind turbine deployment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hui Fang Yu & Md. Hasanuzzaman & Nasrudin Abd Rahim & Norridah Amin & Noriah Nor Adzman, 2022. "Global Challenges and Prospects of Photovoltaic Materials Disposal and Recycling: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-41, July.
    2. Aşkın, Asmin & Kılkış, Şiir & Akınoğlu, Bülent Gültekin, 2023. "Recycling photovoltaic modules within a circular economy approach and a snapshot for Türkiye," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 583-596.
    3. Ana-María Diez-Suarez & Marta Martínez-Benavides & Cristina Manteca Donado & Jorge-Juan Blanes-Peiró & Elia Judith Martínez Torres, 2024. "Recycling of Silicon-Based Photovoltaic Modules: Mediterranean Region Insight," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-44, November.
    4. Wang, Chen & Feng, Kuishuang & Liu, Xi & Wang, Peng & Chen, Wei-Qiang & Li, Jiashuo, 2022. "Looming challenge of photovoltaic waste under China’s solar ambition: A spatial–temporal assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    5. Spellmeier, Júlia Possebon & Rosa, Carmen Brum & Rigo, Paula Donaduzzi & Mello, Mario Fernando & Hoss, Marcelo, 2025. "Design of a business model for competitive end-of-life performance of photovoltaic systems in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    6. Dias, Pablo R. & Schmidt, Lucas & Chang, Nathan L. & Monteiro Lunardi, Marina & Deng, Rong & Trigger, Blair & Bonan Gomes, Lucas & Egan, Renate & Veit, Hugo, 2022. "High yield, low cost, environmentally friendly process to recycle silicon solar panels: Technical, economic and environmental feasibility assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Jain, Suresh & Sharma, Tanya & Gupta, Anil Kumar, 2022. "End-of-life management of solar PV waste in India: Situation analysis and proposed policy framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Yu, Hui Fang & Hasanuzzaman, Md & Rahim, Nasrudin Abd, 2025. "Environmental impact of photovoltaic modules in Malaysia: Recycling versus landfilling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    9. Souza, Vanessa & Rodrigues Figueiredo, Adriano Marcos & Santos Bortolocci Espejo, Márcia Maria dos, 2024. "Challenges and strategies for managing end-of-life photovoltaic equipment in Brazil: Learning from international experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    10. Nain, Preeti & Kumar, Arun, 2020. "Initial metal contents and leaching rate constants of metals leached from end-of-life solar photovoltaic waste: An integrative literature review and analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    11. Deng, Rong & Chang, Nathan L. & Ouyang, Zi & Chong, Chee Mun, 2019. "A techno-economic review of silicon photovoltaic module recycling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 532-550.
    12. Libo Zhang & Qian Du & Dequn Zhou, 2021. "Grid Parity Analysis of China’s Centralized Photovoltaic Generation under Multiple Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, March.
    13. D’Adamo, Idiano & Falcone, Pasquale Marcello & Gastaldi, Massimo & Morone, Piergiuseppe, 2020. "The economic viability of photovoltaic systems in public buildings: Evidence from Italy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. Kong, Minjin & Ji, Changyoon & Hong, Taehoon & Kang, Hyuna, 2022. "Impact of the use of recycled materials on the energy conservation and energy transition of buildings using life cycle assessment: A case study in South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Maciej Chrzanowski & Piotr Zawada, 2023. "Fraction Separation Potential in the Recycling Process of Photovoltaic Panels at the Installation Site—A Conceptual Framework from an Economic and Ecological Safety Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-10, February.
    16. Dimitris Drikakis & Talib Dbouk, 2022. "The Role of Computational Science in Wind and Solar Energy: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Milad Mousavian, H. & Hamed Shakouri, G. & Mashayekhi, Ali-Naghi & Kazemi, Aliyeh, 2020. "Does the short-term boost of renewable energies guarantee their stable long-term growth? Assessment of the dynamics of feed-in tariff policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1252-1268.
    18. Farrell, C.C. & Osman, A.I. & Doherty, R. & Saad, M. & Zhang, X. & Murphy, A. & Harrison, J. & Vennard, A.S.M. & Kumaravel, V. & Al-Muhtaseb, A.H. & Rooney, D.W., 2020. "Technical challenges and opportunities in realising a circular economy for waste photovoltaic modules," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    19. Muath Bani Salim & Dervis Emre Demirocak & Nael Barakat, 2018. "A Fuzzy Based Model for Standardized Sustainability Assessment of Photovoltaic Cells," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Omar H. AL-Zoubi & Moayyad Shawaqfah & Fares Almomani & Rebhi A. Damash & Kamel Al-Zboon, 2022. "Photovoltaic Solar Cells and Panels Waste in Jordan: Figures, Facts, and Concerns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:384:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925001898. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.