IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v277y2023ics0360544223010927.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy–materials nexus of electrified vehicle penetration in Japan: A study on energy transition and cobalt flow

Author

Listed:
  • Ozawa, Akito
  • Morimoto, Shinichirou
  • Hatayama, Hiroki
  • Anzai, Yurie

Abstract

The penetration of low-carbon technology must be accelerated to achieve carbon neutrality, but can be restricted by the material supply required for the production of such technology. In this study, we analyzed the diffusion of energy technologies from energy transition and sustainable resource use perspectives. An energy system analysis was performed to evaluate the future technology stock, energy balance, and CO2 emissions in Japan. Simulation results show that 79.4% of the energy consumed and 94.4% of the CO2 emitted by passenger vehicles could be reduced from 2010 levels by 2050, if the maximum growth rate of electrified vehicles is 17% per year. Meanwhile, for that scenario, material flow analysis suggests that cobalt demand in 2050 would increase to 93.9–174.0 kt, which is 20.9–35.8 times of that in 2020. Recycling of cobalt waste will reduce the cobalt supply and demand gap therefore is critical for sustainable resource use.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozawa, Akito & Morimoto, Shinichirou & Hatayama, Hiroki & Anzai, Yurie, 2023. "Energy–materials nexus of electrified vehicle penetration in Japan: A study on energy transition and cobalt flow," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:277:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223010927
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127698
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223010927
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127698?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon, Bálint & Ziemann, Saskia & Weil, Marcel, 2015. "Potential metal requirement of active materials in lithium-ion battery cells of electric vehicles and its impact on reserves: Focus on Europe," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA), pages 300-310.
    2. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2023. "The implications of material and energy efficiencies for the climate change mitigation potential of global energy transition scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    3. Gervais, Estelle & Shammugam, Shivenes & Friedrich, Lorenz & Schlegl, Thomas, 2021. "Raw material needs for the large-scale deployment of photovoltaics – Effects of innovation-driven roadmaps on material constraints until 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Blengini, Gian Andrea & Nuss, Philip & Dewulf, Jo & Nita, Viorel & Peirò, Laura Talens & Vidal-Legaz, Beatriz & Latunussa, Cynthia & Mancini, Lucia & Blagoeva, Darina & Pennington, David & Pellegrini,, 2017. "EU methodology for critical raw materials assessment: Policy needs and proposed solutions for incremental improvements," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 12-19.
    5. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    6. Gardumi, F. & Keppo, I. & Howells, M. & Pye, S. & Avgerinopoulos, G. & Lekavičius, V. & Galinis, A. & Martišauskas, L. & Fahl, U. & Korkmaz, P. & Schmid, D. & Montenegro, R. Cunha & Syri, S. & Hast, A, 2022. "Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    7. Stamp, Anna & Wäger, Patrick A. & Hellweg, Stefanie, 2014. "Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case of indium in CIGS solar cells," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 156-167.
    8. Hondo, Hiroki, 2005. "Life cycle GHG emission analysis of power generation systems: Japanese case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2042-2056.
    9. Elshkaki, Ayman & Shen, Lei, 2019. "Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 903-917.
    10. Wang, Haimin & Shi, Weijie & Hu, Feng & Wang, Yufei & Hu, Xuebin & Li, Huanqi, 2021. "Over-heating triggered thermal runaway behavior for lithium-ion battery with high nickel content in positive electrode," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    11. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2019. "Material-energy-water-carbon nexus in China’s electricity generation system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    12. Oshiro, Ken & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Ochi, Yuki & Ehara, Tomoki, 2021. "Enabling energy system transition toward decarbonization in Japan through energy service demand reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    13. Tokimatsu, Koji & Höök, Mikael & McLellan, Benjamin & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Murakami, Shinsuke & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2018. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1158-1175.
    14. Liu, Boyu & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Jiangfeng & Hao, Yawei & Tang, Yanyan & Li, Yaoming, 2022. "The impacts of critical metal shortage on China's electric vehicle industry development and countermeasure policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    15. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    16. Zang, Guiyan & Zhang, Jianan & Xu, Siqi & Xing, Yangchuan, 2021. "Techno-economic analysis of cathode material production using flame-assisted spray pyrolysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    17. Gu, Yuxuan & Wang, Jianxiao & Chen, Yuanbo & Xiao, Wei & Deng, Zhongwei & Chen, Qixin, 2023. "A simplified electro-chemical lithium-ion battery model applicable for in situ monitoring and online control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    18. Bauer, Christian & Hofer, Johannes & Althaus, Hans-Jörg & Del Duce, Andrea & Simons, Andrew, 2015. "The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 871-883.
    19. Wang, Peng & Chen, Li-Yang & Ge, Jian-Ping & Cai, Wenjia & Chen, Wei-Qiang, 2019. "Incorporating critical material cycles into metal-energy nexus of China’s 2050 renewable transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Xiao-Guang Yang & Teng Liu & Chao-Yang Wang, 2021. "Thermally modulated lithium iron phosphate batteries for mass-market electric vehicles," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 176-185, February.
    21. Nobuo Sekine & Ichiro Daigo & Yoshikazu Goto, 2017. "Dynamic Substance Flow Analysis of Neodymium and Dysprosium Associated with Neodymium Magnets in Japan," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 21(2), pages 356-367, April.
    22. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2020. "Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    23. Guo, Xueyi & Zhang, Jingxi & Tian, Qinghua, 2021. "Modeling the potential impact of future lithium recycling on lithium demand in China: A dynamic SFA approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    24. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Laura van Soest, Heleen & Schaeffer, Roberto & Reedman, Luke & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Macaluso, Nick & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & De Vita, Alessia & Sha, Fu & Qimin, Chai & Kej, 2021. "Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    25. Michaja Pehl & Anders Arvesen & Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Edgar G. Hertwich & Gunnar Luderer, 2017. "Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 939-945, December.
    26. Hatayama, Hiroki & Tahara, Kiyotaka, 2018. "Adopting an objective approach to criticality assessment: Learning from the past," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-102.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Teixeira, Bernardo & Brito, Miguel Centeno & Mateus, António, 2024. "Raw materials for the Portuguese decarbonization roadmap: The case of solar photovoltaics and wind energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Guohua, Yuan & Elshkaki, Ayman & Xiao, Xi, 2021. "Dynamic analysis of future nickel demand, supply, and associated materials, energy, water, and carbon emissions in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2020. "Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    6. Hu, Xueyue & Wang, Chunying & Elshkaki, Ayman, 2024. "Material-energy Nexus: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    7. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    8. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zeng, Anqi, 2023. "The slow-release effect of recycling on rapid demand growth of critical metals from EV batteries up to 2050: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N. & Won, Hyun-Woo & Li, Yang & Sarathy, S. Mani & Xie, Xiaomin & Amer, Amer A., 2020. "Bridging the gap in a resource and climate-constrained world with advanced gasoline compression-ignition hybrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    10. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    11. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2023. "Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    12. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2023. "The implications of material and energy efficiencies for the climate change mitigation potential of global energy transition scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    13. Beibei Che & Chaofeng Shao & Zhirui Lu & Binghong Qian & Sihan Chen, 2022. "Mineral Requirements for China’s Energy Transition to 2060—Focus on Electricity and Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    15. Xinxin Liu & Nan Li & Feng Liu & Hailin Mu & Longxi Li & Xiaoyu Liu, 2021. "Optimal Design on Fossil-to-Renewable Energy Transition of Regional Integrated Energy Systems under CO 2 Emission Abatement Control: A Case Study in Dalian, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-25, May.
    16. Gutsch, Moritz & Leker, Jens, 2024. "Costs, carbon footprint, and environmental impacts of lithium-ion batteries – From cathode active material synthesis to cell manufacturing and recycling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    17. Johannes Morfeldt & Daniel J. A. Johansson, 2022. "Impacts of shared mobility on vehicle lifetimes and on the carbon footprint of electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Sun, Kun & Geng, Hongjun & Zuo, Lyushui, 2023. "Material efficiency strategies across the industrial chain to secure indium availability for global carbon neutrality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    19. Liu, Haiping & Li, Huajiao & Qi, Yajie & An, Pengli & Shi, Jianglan & Liu, Yanxin, 2021. "Identification of high-risk agents and relationships in nickel, cobalt, and lithium trade based on resource-dependent networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Zheng, Biao & Zhang, Yuquan & Chen, Yufeng, 2021. "Asymmetric connectedness and dynamic spillovers between renewable energy and rare earth markets in China: Evidence from firms’ high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:277:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223010927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.