IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v227y2021ics0360544221007738.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Ren, Kaipeng
  • Tang, Xu
  • Wang, Peng
  • Willerström, Jakob
  • Höök, Mikael

Abstract

Concerns over anthropogenic climate change and sustainable development motivate rapid expansion of renewable energy in China. This paper explores metal demand caused by projected wind power developments in China up to 2050. Dynamic material flow analysis is combined with explorative energy scenarios to evaluate induced demand of base metals (copper, steel, aluminum, nickel) and rare earth elements (neodymium and dysprosium). The results indicate that annual demand of base metals for Chinese wind power is up to 12 times larger in 2050 than in 2018, and the cumulative demand is up to 23 times larger. Copper and nickel show greater supply pressure than aluminum and steel in the wind power sector. Cumulative copper and nickel demand of wind power sector are 9–11.9 Mt and 2.1–2.8 Mt respectively, which corresponds to 35–45.9% of copper reserves and 74–101% of nickel reserves in China. For rare earth elements demand, more than 18-fold increases are expected for annual demand in 2050 compared with 2020, and cumulative demand of neodymium and dysprosium are 1.6–3.3% and 1.4–2.8% of their reserves respectively. Recycling will play an important role after 2050 as a secondary supply of metal for Chinese wind power, and lacks noteworthy impacts on short-term future outlooks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:227:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221007738
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221007738
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120524?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel, 2018. "Material bottlenecks in the future development of green technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-200.
    2. Månberger, André & Stenqvist, Björn, 2018. "Global metal flows in the renewable energy transition: Exploring the effects of substitutes, technological mix and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 226-241.
    3. Harmsen, J.H.M. & Roes, A.L. & Patel, M.K., 2013. "The impact of copper scarcity on the efficiency of 2050 global renewable energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-73.
    4. Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Simon Snowden & Baosheng Zhang & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Dilemmas for China: Energy, Economy and Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-13, May.
    5. Kim, Junbeum & Guillaume, Bertrand & Chung, Jinwook & Hwang, Yongwoo, 2015. "Critical and precious materials consumption and requirement in wind energy system in the EU 27," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 327-334.
    6. Tokimatsu, Koji & Wachtmeister, Henrik & McLellan, Benjamin & Davidsson, Simon & Murakami, Shinsuke & Höök, Mikael & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2°C target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 494-509.
    7. Wang, Peng & Chen, Li-Yang & Ge, Jian-Ping & Cai, Wenjia & Chen, Wei-Qiang, 2019. "Incorporating critical material cycles into metal-energy nexus of China’s 2050 renewable transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester & Kramer, Gert Jan & van Oers, Lauran & van der Giesen, Coen, 2011. "Metal requirements of low-carbon power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5640-5648.
    9. Davidsson, Simon & Grandell, Leena & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Höök, Mikael, 2014. "Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 767-776.
    10. Elshkaki, Ayman & Shen, Lei, 2019. "Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 903-917.
    11. Hansen, J.P. & Narbel, P.A. & Aksnes, D.L., 2017. "Limits to growth in the renewable energy sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 769-774.
    12. Viebahn, Peter & Soukup, Ole & Samadi, Sascha & Teubler, Jens & Wiesen, Klaus & Ritthoff, Michael, 2015. "Assessing the need for critical minerals to shift the German energy system towards a high proportion of renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 655-671.
    13. Dierk Raabe & C. Cem Tasan & Elsa A. Olivetti, 2019. "Strategies for improving the sustainability of structural metals," Nature, Nature, vol. 575(7781), pages 64-74, November.
    14. Roelich, Katy & Dawson, David A. & Purnell, Phil & Knoeri, Christof & Revell, Ruairi & Busch, Jonathan & Steinberger, Julia K., 2014. "Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 378-386.
    15. Tomer Fishman & T. E. Graedel, 2019. "Impact of the establishment of US offshore wind power on neodymium flows," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 332-338, April.
    16. Smith Stegen, Karen, 2015. "Heavy rare earths, permanent magnets, and renewable energies: An imminent crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-8.
    17. Tokimatsu, Koji & Höök, Mikael & McLellan, Benjamin & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Murakami, Shinsuke & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2018. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1158-1175.
    18. Elshkaki, Ayman & Graedel, T.E., 2014. "Dysprosium, the balance problem, and wind power technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 548-559.
    19. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    20. Nassar, Nedal T. & Wilburn, David R. & Goonan, Thomas G., 2016. "Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1209-1226.
    21. Di Dong & Arnold Tukker & Ester Van der Voet, 2019. "Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business‐as‐usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(6), pages 1363-1380, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Song, Yi & Ruan, Shengzhe & Cheng, Jinhua & Zhang, Yijun, 2023. "Technological change in critical metallic mineral sub-sectors and its impacts on mineral supply: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    3. Peng, Feixiang & Hu, Shubo & Fan, Xuanxuan & Sun, Hui & Zhou, Wei & Guo, Furan & Song, Wenzhuo, 2021. "Sequential coalition formation for wind-thermal combined bidding," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    3. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    4. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    5. Zheng, Biao & Zhang, Yuquan & Chen, Yufeng, 2021. "Asymmetric connectedness and dynamic spillovers between renewable energy and rare earth markets in China: Evidence from firms’ high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2020. "Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2019. "Material-energy-water-carbon nexus in China’s electricity generation system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mariev, Oleg & Samargandi, Nahla, 2022. "Minerals import demands and clean energy transitions: A disaggregated analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. He, Rui-fang & Zhong, Mei-rui & Huang, Jian-bai, 2021. "The dynamic effects of renewable-energy and fossil-fuel technological progress on metal consumption in the electric power industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Chen, Jinyu & Luo, Qian & Tu, Yan & Ren, Xiaohang & Naderi, Niki, 2023. "Renewable energy transition and metal consumption: Dynamic evolution analysis based on transnational data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Kim Maya Yavor & Vanessa Bach & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2021. "Resource Assessment of Renewable Energy Systems—A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    12. Elshkaki, Ayman & Shen, Lei, 2019. "Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 903-917.
    13. Wang, Peng & Chen, Li-Yang & Ge, Jian-Ping & Cai, Wenjia & Chen, Wei-Qiang, 2019. "Incorporating critical material cycles into metal-energy nexus of China’s 2050 renewable transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2023. "The implications of material and energy efficiencies for the climate change mitigation potential of global energy transition scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    15. André Månberger, 2021. "Reduced Use of Fossil Fuels can Reduce Supply of Critical Resources," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, June.
    16. Li, Chen & Mogollón, José M. & Tukker, Arnold & Dong, Jianning & von Terzi, Dominic & Zhang, Chunbo & Steubing, Bernhard, 2022. "Future material requirements for global sustainable offshore wind energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    17. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Alam, Md. Mahmudul, 2022. "Mineral import demand and clean energy transitions in the top mineral-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2023. "Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    19. Beibei Che & Chaofeng Shao & Zhirui Lu & Binghong Qian & Sihan Chen, 2022. "Mineral Requirements for China’s Energy Transition to 2060—Focus on Electricity and Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Sun, Kun & Geng, Hongjun & Zuo, Lyushui, 2023. "Material efficiency strategies across the industrial chain to secure indium availability for global carbon neutrality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:227:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221007738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.