IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v258y2022ics0360544222012324.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits

Author

Listed:
  • Gardumi, F.
  • Keppo, I.
  • Howells, M.
  • Pye, S.
  • Avgerinopoulos, G.
  • Lekavičius, V.
  • Galinis, A.
  • Martišauskas, L.
  • Fahl, U.
  • Korkmaz, P.
  • Schmid, D.
  • Montenegro, R. Cunha
  • Syri, S.
  • Hast, A.
  • Mörtberg, U.
  • Balyk, O.
  • Karlsson, K.
  • Pang, X.
  • Mozgeris, G.
  • Trubins, R.
  • Jakšić, D.
  • Turalija, I.M.
  • Mikulić, M.

Abstract

With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Gardumi, F. & Keppo, I. & Howells, M. & Pye, S. & Avgerinopoulos, G. & Lekavičius, V. & Galinis, A. & Martišauskas, L. & Fahl, U. & Korkmaz, P. & Schmid, D. & Montenegro, R. Cunha & Syri, S. & Hast, A, 2022. "Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:258:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222012324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124329
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222012324
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124329?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antti Teräsvirta & Sanna Syri & Pauli Hiltunen, 2020. "Small Nuclear Reactor—Nordic District Heating Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2016. "Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1634-1653.
    3. Pinar Korkmaz & Roland Cunha Montenegro & Dorothea Schmid & Markus Blesl & Ulrich Fahl, 2020. "On the Way to a Sustainable European Energy System: Setting Up an Integrated Assessment Toolbox with TIMES PanEU as the Key Component," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-36, February.
    4. Hast, Aira & Syri, Sanna & Lekavičius, Vidas & Galinis, Arvydas, 2018. "District heating in cities as a part of low-carbon energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 627-639.
    5. Pang, Xi & Nordström, Eva-Maria & Böttcher, Hannes & Trubins, Renats & Mörtberg, Ulla, 2017. "Trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services under different forest management scenarios – The LEcA tool," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(PA), pages 67-79.
    6. Howells, Mark & Rogner, Holger & Strachan, Neil & Heaps, Charles & Huntington, Hillard & Kypreos, Socrates & Hughes, Alison & Silveira, Semida & DeCarolis, Joe & Bazillian, Morgan & Roehrl, Alexander, 2011. "OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5850-5870, October.
    7. Guido Ceccherini & Gregory Duveiller & Giacomo Grassi & Guido Lemoine & Valerio Avitabile & Roberto Pilli & Alessandro Cescatti, 2020. "Abrupt increase in harvested forest area over Europe after 2015," Nature, Nature, vol. 583(7814), pages 72-77, July.
    8. Roland Cunha Montenegro & Vidas Lekavičius & Jurica Brajković & Ulrich Fahl & Kai Hufendiek, 2019. "Long-Term Distributional Impacts of European Cap-and-Trade Climate Policies: A CGE Multi-Regional Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Audrey Dobbins & Francesco Fuso Nerini & Paul Deane & Steve Pye, 2019. "Strengthening the EU response to energy poverty," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 2-5, January.
    10. Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Anders Arvesen & Thomas Gibon & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Oliver Fricko & Mohamad Hejazi & Florian Humpenöder & Gokul Iyer & Silvana Mima & Ioanna M, 2019. "Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    12. Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Anders Arvesen & Thomas Gibon & Benjamin L Bodirsky & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Oliver Fricko & Mohamad Hejazi & Florian Humpenöder & Gokul Iyer & Silvana Mima & Ioanna Mo, 2019. "Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies," Post-Print hal-02380468, HAL.
    13. Hof, Andries F. & Carrara, Samuel & De Cian, Enrica & Pfluger, Benjamin & van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoxia Liang & Yi Shi & Yan Li, 2023. "Research on the Yellow River Basin Energy Structure Transformation Path under the “Double Carbon” Goal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    3. Ozawa, Akito & Morimoto, Shinichirou & Hatayama, Hiroki & Anzai, Yurie, 2023. "Energy–materials nexus of electrified vehicle penetration in Japan: A study on energy transition and cobalt flow," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    2. Lu, Bin & Blakers, Andrew & Stocks, Matthew & Do, Thang Nam, 2021. "Low-cost, low-emission 100% renewable electricity in Southeast Asia supported by pumped hydro storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Sani, L. & Khatiwada, D. & Harahap, F. & Silveira, S., 2021. "Decarbonization pathways for the power sector in Sumatra, Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Andersen, Anders N. & Sorknæs, Peter, 2022. "The business-economic energy system modelling tool energyPRO," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    5. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Tobias Junne & Sonja Simon & Jens Buchgeister & Maximilian Saiger & Manuel Baumann & Martina Haase & Christina Wulf & Tobias Naegler, 2020. "Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Bartholdsen, Hans-Karl & Eidens, Anna & Löffler, Konstantin & Seehaus, Frederik & Wejda, Felix & Burandt, Thorsten & Oei, Pao-Yu & Kemfert, Claudia & Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2019. "Pathways for Germany's Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(15), pages 1-33.
    8. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Marinakis, Vangelis & Nikas, Alexandros & Chira, Katerina & Flamos, Alexandros & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Monetising behavioural change as a policy measure to support energy management in the residential sector: A case study in Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Yue, Xiufeng & Patankar, Neha & Decarolis, Joseph & Chiodi, Alessandro & Rogan, Fionn & Deane, J.P. & O’Gallachoir, Brian, 2020. "Least cost energy system pathways towards 100% renewable energy in Ireland by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    10. Tafarte, Philip & Lehmann, Paul, 2023. "Quantifying trade-offs for the spatial allocation of onshore wind generation capacity – A case study for Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    11. Porcelli, Roberto & Gibon, Thomas & Marazza, Diego & Righi, Serena & Rugani, Benedetto, 2023. "Prospective environmental impact assessment and simulation applied to an emerging biowaste-based energy technology in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    12. Paul Wolfram & Qingshi Tu & Niko Heeren & Stefan Pauliuk & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "Material efficiency and climate change mitigation of passenger vehicles," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 494-510, April.
    13. Chong, Cheng Tung & Fan, Yee Van & Lee, Chew Tin & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír, 2022. "Post COVID-19 ENERGY sustainability and carbon emissions neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    14. Xu, Jiuping & Liu, Tingting, 2020. "Technological paradigm-based approaches towards challenges and policy shifts for sustainable wind energy development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Papadis, Elisa & Tsatsaronis, George, 2020. "Challenges in the decarbonization of the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    16. Pommeret, Aude & Ricci, Francesco & Schubert, Katheline, 2022. "Critical raw materials for the energy transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    17. Mantas Svazas & Yuriy Bilan & Valentinas Navickas & Małgorzata Okręglicka, 2023. "Energy Transformation in Municipal Areas—Key Datasets and Their Influence on Process Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Sacchi, R. & Terlouw, T. & Siala, K. & Dirnaichner, A. & Bauer, C. & Cox, B. & Mutel, C. & Daioglou, V. & Luderer, G., 2022. "PRospective EnvironMental Impact asSEment (premise): A streamlined approach to producing databases for prospective life cycle assessment using integrated assessment models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    19. Ge, Yongkai & Ma, Yue & Wang, Qingrui & Yang, Qing & Xing, Lu & Ba, Shusong, 2023. "Techno-economic-environmental assessment and performance comparison of a building distributed multi-energy system under various operation strategies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 685-696.
    20. Grubert, E. & Zacarias, M., 2022. "Paradigm shifts for environmental assessment of decarbonizing energy systems: Emerging dominance of embodied impacts and design-oriented decision support needs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:258:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222012324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.