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Decarbonization pathways for the power sector in Sumatra, Indonesia

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  • Sani, L.
  • Khatiwada, D.
  • Harahap, F.
  • Silveira, S.

Abstract

The Indonesian power sector faces the combined challenge to (i) satisfy growing electricity demand at an affordable cost and (ii) comply with the decarbonization targets committed under the Paris Agreement. In this study, we investigate cost-optimal pathways for the development of the power sector in line with climate targets. We used the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software tool to build a power-system expansion model for Sumatra and simulated four scenarios representing a business as usual development, the current development plans, and two mitigation pathways in line with the national climate targets. Particular focus is put on bioenergy, an energy source that has been often overlooked in previous studies and plans. The results show that, although the national plans consider mitigation actions, they do not reduce coal dependency. Besides, current development plans are not cost-effective and have high marginal abatement costs for emissions reduction. The two mitigation scenarios achieve better environmental results at lower system costs. Our results show that bioenergy deployment can contribute significantly to achieving the greenhouse gas (GHG) targets of 19% and 24% pledged by the Indonesian government. More efficient use of modern renewables and natural gas can reduce Sumatra's dependence on coal resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Sani, L. & Khatiwada, D. & Harahap, F. & Silveira, S., 2021. "Decarbonization pathways for the power sector in Sumatra, Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:150:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121007863
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111507
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    2. Rahman, Arief & Richards, Russell & Dargusch, Paul & Wadley, David, 2023. "Pathways to reduce Indonesia’s dependence on oil and achieve longer-term decarbonization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1305-1323.
    3. Khatiwada, Dilip & Vasudevan, Rohan Adithya & Santos, Bruno Henrique, 2022. "Decarbonization of natural gas systems in the EU – Costs, barriers, and constraints of hydrogen production with a case study in Portugal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Reyseliani, Nadhilah & Hidayatno, Akhmad & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2022. "Implication of the Paris agreement target on Indonesia electricity sector transition to 2050 using TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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