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Career expectations and outcomes: Evidence (on gender gaps) from the economics job market

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  • Helppie-McFall, Brooke
  • Parolin, Eric
  • Zafar, Basit

Abstract

This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008–2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job history and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get tenure or publish regularly; (2) the gender gap in expectations is remarkably similar to the gap observed for academic outcomes; (3) expectations are similarly predictive of outcomes for males and females, and (4) gender gaps in expectations can explain about 22 % and 14 % of the ex-post gaps in tenure and publications, respectively. In addition, leveraging variation in relationship status at the time expectations are reported, we show that: conditional on gender, (1) expectations regarding tenure and publications do not differ systematically by relationship status, and (2) the predictive power of expectations does not differ by the relationship status of the individual.

Suggested Citation

  • Helppie-McFall, Brooke & Parolin, Eric & Zafar, Basit, 2025. "Career expectations and outcomes: Evidence (on gender gaps) from the economics job market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:248:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725001355
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105437
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    JEL classification:

    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations

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