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Career expectations and outcomes: Evidence (on gender gaps) from the economics job market

Author

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  • Helppie-McFall, Brooke
  • Parolin, Eric
  • Zafar, Basit

Abstract

This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008–2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job history and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get tenure or publish regularly; (2) the gender gap in expectations is remarkably similar to the gap observed for academic outcomes; (3) expectations are similarly predictive of outcomes for males and females, and (4) gender gaps in expectations can explain about 22 % and 14 % of the ex-post gaps in tenure and publications, respectively. In addition, leveraging variation in relationship status at the time expectations are reported, we show that: conditional on gender, (1) expectations regarding tenure and publications do not differ systematically by relationship status, and (2) the predictive power of expectations does not differ by the relationship status of the individual.

Suggested Citation

  • Helppie-McFall, Brooke & Parolin, Eric & Zafar, Basit, 2025. "Career expectations and outcomes: Evidence (on gender gaps) from the economics job market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:248:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725001355
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105437
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jihui Chen & Qihong Liu & Myongjin Kim, 2022. "Gender gap in tenure and promotion: Evidence from the economics Ph.D. class of 2008," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(4), pages 1277-1312, April.
    2. Marianne Bertrand & Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2010. "Dynamics of the Gender Gap for Young Professionals in the Financial and Corporate Sectors," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 228-255, July.
    3. Thomas Buser & Muriel Niederle & Hessel Oosterbeek, 2014. "Gender, Competitiveness, and Career Choices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1409-1447.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3t1fcs7p369jmaalnboqhpgknn is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ernesto Reuben & Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2017. "Preferences and Biases in Educational Choices and Labour Market Expectations: Shrinking the Black Box of Gender," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 2153-2186, September.
    6. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pc:p:3143-3259 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Determinants of College Major Choice: Identification using an Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 791-824.
    8. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2017. "The Gender Wage Gap: Extent, Trends, and Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 789-865, September.
    9. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
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    11. Ghazala Azmat & Rosa Ferrer, 2017. "Gender Gaps in Performance: Evidence from Young Lawyers," SciencePo Working papers hal-03391951, HAL.
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    16. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2021. "Human Capital Investments and Expectations about Career and Family," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1361-1424.
    17. Ghazala Azmat & Vicente Cuñat & Emeric Henry, 2025. "Gender Promotion Gaps and Career Aspirations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(3), pages 2127-2141, March.
    18. Nina Roussille, 2024. "The Role of the Ask Gap in Gender Pay Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1557-1610.
    19. Brooke Helppie McFall & Marta Murray-Close & Robert J. Willis & Uniko Chen, 2015. "Is It All Worth It? The Experiences of New PhDs on the Job Market, 2007-10," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 83-104, March.
    20. Heather Sarsons & Klarita Gërxhani & Ernesto Reuben & Arthur Schram, 2021. "Gender Differences in Recognition for Group Work," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(1), pages 101-147.
    21. Chinhui Juhn & Kristin McCue, 2017. "Specialization Then and Now: Marriage, Children, and the Gender Earnings Gap across Cohorts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 183-204, Winter.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations

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