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Do term limits affect fiscal policy choices?

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  • Dalle Nogare, Chiara
  • Ricciuti, Roberto

Abstract

According to reputational models of Political Economy, a term limit may change the behavior of a chief executive because he does not have to stand for election. We use a dynamic panel data estimation strategy to test this hypothesis in a sample of 52 countries over the period 1977–2000, using social and welfare spending and surplus as policy variables. We are unable to find significant differences between the fiscal policies of term-limited chief executives and other types of government, while when we look at presidential systems only, lame ducks appear to be more likely to cut public spending. This contrasts with previous empirical results based on US states and international data.

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  • Dalle Nogare, Chiara & Ricciuti, Roberto, 2011. "Do term limits affect fiscal policy choices?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 681-692.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:681-692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.06.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Rotunno, Lorenzo, 2016. "Political stability and trade agreements: Evidence for ‘endgame FTAs’," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 133-148.
    2. Dalle Nogare, Chiara & Kauder, Björn, 2017. "Term limits for mayors and intergovernmental grants: Evidence from Italian cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Raveh, Ohad & Tsur, Yacov, 2020. "Resource windfalls and public debt: A political economy perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Klein, Fabio Alvim & Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko, 2015. "Term limits and political budget cycles at the local level: evidence from a young democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 21-36.
    5. Ohad Raveh & Yacov Tsur, 2018. "Resource Windfalls and Public Debt: The Role of Political Myopia," OxCarre Working Papers 205, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Toke S. Aidt & Julia Shvets, 2012. "Distributive Politics and Electoral Incentives: Evidence from Seven US State Legislatures," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 1-29, August.
    8. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco veiga, 2016. "Term limits at the local government level," NIPE Working Papers 7/2016, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Yasushi Asako & Tetsuya Matsubayashi & Michiko Ueda, 2012. "Seniority, Term Limits, and Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the United States," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Raveh, Ohad & Tsur, Yacov, 2020. "Reelection, growth and public debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Jochimsen, Beate & Thomasius, Sebastian, 2014. "The perfect finance minister: Whom to appoint as finance minister to balance the budget," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 390-408.
    12. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Enrico Saltari & Willi Semmler, 2018. "Public debt stabilization: the relevance of policymakers’ time horizons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 287-299, December.
    13. Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana, 2015. "Lame but loyal ducks," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 254, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2022. "Current expenditure upswings in good times and public investment downswings in bad times? New evidence from developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 118-134.
    15. Shun-ichiro Bessho & Kimiko Terai, 2013. "Fiscal restraints by advisors," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 205-232, August.
    16. Ohad Raveh & Yacov Tsur, 2017. "Political Myopia, Public Debt," OxCarre Working Papers 200, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Fabio Alvim Klein & Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai, 2016. "Term Limits And Political Budget Cycles At The Local Level: Evidence From A Young Democracy," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 052, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term limits; Comparative politics; Fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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