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Do term limits affect fiscal policy choices?

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  • Dalle Nogare, Chiara
  • Ricciuti, Roberto

Abstract

According to reputational models of Political Economy, a term limit may change the behavior of a chief executive because he does not have to stand for election. We use a dynamic panel data estimation strategy to test this hypothesis in a sample of 52 countries over the period 1977–2000, using social and welfare spending and surplus as policy variables. We are unable to find significant differences between the fiscal policies of term-limited chief executives and other types of government, while when we look at presidential systems only, lame ducks appear to be more likely to cut public spending. This contrasts with previous empirical results based on US states and international data.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalle Nogare, Chiara & Ricciuti, Roberto, 2011. "Do term limits affect fiscal policy choices?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 681-692.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:681-692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.06.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rotunno, Lorenzo, 2016. "Political stability and trade agreements: Evidence for ‘endgame FTAs’," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 133-148.
    2. Jochimsen, Beate & Thomasius, Sebastian, 2014. "The perfect finance minister: Whom to appoint as finance minister to balance the budget," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 390-408.
    3. Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana, 2015. "Lame but loyal ducks," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 254, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Klein, Fabio Alvim & Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko, 2015. "Term limits and political budget cycles at the local level: evidence from a young democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 21-36.
    5. Martín Ardanaz & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Shun-ichiro Bessho & Kimiko Terai, 2013. "Fiscal restraints by advisors," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 205-232, August.
    7. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco veiga, 2016. "Term limits at the local government level," NIPE Working Papers 7/2016, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. repec:eee:regeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Yasushi Asako & Tetsuya Matsubayashi & Michiko Ueda, 2012. "Seniority, Term Limits, and Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the United States," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term limits; Comparative politics; Fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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