Credit risk enhancement in a network of interdependent firms
We generalize existing structural models for credit risk to capture the impact of counterparty defaults on economic capital allocated to banks’ loan portfolios. Exploring the analogy to a lattice gas model from physics, correlations between sequential defaults are modeled as due to functionally defined, heterogeneous couplings between mutually dependent counterparties. We show that—already for moderate micro-economic dependencies—counterparty risk results in a fattening of the tails in the portfolio loss distribution. In particular, for stronger mutually supportive relationship between the firms, collective phenomena such as bursts and avalanches of defaults can be observed in the model. In this context, traditional credit risk models are inadequate because they underestimate the required capital buffer. Our model setting is particularly applicable for doing stress analyses of credit risk in loan portfolios.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 342 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael B. Gordy, 1998.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2003. "Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,11, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
- Kühn, Reimer & Neu, Peter, 2003. "Functional correlation approach to operational risk in banking organizations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 650-666.
- Gordy, Michael B., 2003.
"A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules,"
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
- Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:342:y:2004:i:3:p:639-655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.