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Quantifying the risk-sharing welfare gains of social security

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  • Olovsson, Conny

Abstract

The welfare effects of intergenerational risk sharing through a pay-as-you-go social security system that is efficiently indexed to wages or interest rates are quantified. Comparing steady states, there are large welfare gains of being born into an economy with efficient risk sharing as compared to the current U.S. system. Efficient policy involves an increasingly risky net of tax income over the life cycle. When adjustment to steady state is taken into account, the welfare gains largely turn negative. The results are also compared and contrasted to the first best allocation.

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  • Olovsson, Conny, 2010. "Quantifying the risk-sharing welfare gains of social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 364-375, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:57:y:2010:i:3:p:364-375
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2019. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, And The Welfare Effects Of Social Security," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(2), pages 661-692, May.
    2. William B. Peterman & Kamila Sommer, 2019. "How Well Did Social Security Mitigate The Effects Of The Great Recession?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1433-1466, August.
    3. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, "undated". "Social Security and the Interactions Between Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk," Working Papers ETH-RC-14-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    4. Gottardi, Piero & Kubler, Felix, 2011. "Social security and risk sharing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1078-1106, May.
    5. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "The inflation risk premium on government debt in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 2013_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2015. "Social security in an analytically tractable overlapping generations model with aggregate and idiosyncratic risks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 579-603, August.
    7. Roel Beetsma & Ward Romp, 2013. "Participation Constraints in Pension Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-149/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. William B. Peterman & Kamila Sommer, 2019. "A historical welfare analysis of Social Security: Whom did the program benefit?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(4), pages 1357-1399, November.
    9. Yvonne Adema & Jan Bonenkamp & Lex Meijdam, 2011. "Retirement Flexibility and Portfolio Choice in General Equilibrium," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-038/2/DSF13, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Adema, Y. & Bonenkamp, J. & Meijdam, A.C., 2011. "Retirement Flexibility and Portfolio Choice," Discussion Paper 2011-077, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Michael, Hatcher, 2013. "Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk under inflation and price-level targeting," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    12. Insook Lee, 2020. "Trade-Off Effect of Pay-As-You-Go Public Pension on Economic and Welfare Volatility," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 117-140, June.
    13. Echevarría Olave, Cruz Ángel & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2013. "Income Taxation and Growth in an OLG Economy: Does Aggregate Uncertainty Play any Role?," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    14. Hillebrand, Marten, 2012. "On the optimal size of Social Security in the presence of a stock market," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 26-38.
    15. Romp, Ward & Beetsma, Roel, 2020. "Sustainability of pension systems with voluntary participation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 125-140.
    16. Conny Olovsson, 2014. "How Does a Pay-as-you-go System Affect Asset Returns and the Equity Premium?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 131-149, January.
    17. William B. Peterman & Kamila Sommer, 2014. "How Well Did Social Security Mitigate the Effects of the Great Recession?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Niklas Potrafke, 2007. "Social Security in Germany: A Prey of Political Opportunism?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 677, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Echevarría, Cruz A., 2012. "Income tax progressivity, physical capital, aggregate uncertainty and long-run growth in an OLG economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 955-974.
    20. Fehr, Hans, 2016. "CGE modeling social security reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 475-494.
    21. Tim Worrall & Alessia Russo & Francesco Lancia, 2017. "Sustainable Intergenerational Insurance," 2017 Meeting Papers 319, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Beetsma, R. & Romp, W., 2016. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 311-380, Elsevier.

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