Food and electricity self-sufficiency trade-offs in Reunion Island: Modelling land-use change scenarios with stakeholders

Reunion Island, a French overseas region in the Indian Ocean, has endorsed policies targeting food and electricity self-sufficiency. This objective implies balancing different land-uses (food, feed, bioelectricity, urbanisation, etc.) which we explore in a set of scenarios towards 2035. Through participatory structural analysis, we modelled drivers of change as processes using Ocelet, a spatially explicit and dynamic modelling platform. We built a detailed land-use map for our initial state and calibrated relevant processes through four scenarios ranging from “business-as-usual” to “implementation of ambitious territory planning policies”. To improve local self-sufficiency, our results support the need for large-scale land planning policies, suggesting partial sugarcane conversion into food crops, urbanisation control, farmlands expansion onto fallows and photovoltaic increase. Our context-specific approach addresses food and electricity self-sufficiency as a whole and understands its inner dynamic and spatial processes from stakeholders’ viewpoint. Moreover, our model recognizes small-scale spatial heterogeneity and contributes to mediate controversial issues related to territory foresight and land-use planning.