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Are shocks to electricity consumption transitory or permanent? Sub-national evidence from Turkey

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  • Dogan, Eyup

Abstract

This is the first study that aims to investigate policy shocks to energy consumption in terms of unit root properties by sector. More precisely, we analyze the stationarity of electricity consumption for 12 regions of Turkey by four sectors in addition to total electricity consumption by region (for a total of 60 cases). We find that 48 cases are non-stationary and 12 cases are stationary. Thus, policies to decrease or stimulate the use of electricity have permanent effects on electricity consumption in 80% of the cases and transitory effects in the rest. Findings and policy implications are further discussed.

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  • Dogan, Eyup, 2016. "Are shocks to electricity consumption transitory or permanent? Sub-national evidence from Turkey," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 77-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:41:y:2016:i:c:p:77-84
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2016.06.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Naceur Khraief & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Saleheen Khan, 2018. "Are Fluctuations in Military Spending Transitory or Permanent? International Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1198-1212.
    2. Oluwasola E Omoju & Jinkai Li & Jin Zhang & Abdul Rauf & Victor Edem Sosoo, 2020. "Implications of shocks in energy consumption for energy policy in sub-Saharan Africa," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(6), pages 1077-1097, September.
    3. Oktay KIZILKAYA & Gökhan KONAT, 2019. "Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(0), pages 53-62, December.
    4. Fan, Yi & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid, 2024. "Analyzing the degree persistence of shocks to energy security of the G7 countries: Evidence using panel SPSM-quantile unit root test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 389-399.
    5. Akram, Vaseem & Sahoo, Pradipta Kumar & Jangam, Bhushan Praveen, 2019. "Do shocks to electricity consumption revert to its equilibrium? Evidence from Indian states," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Kassouri, Yacouba, 2022. "Boom-bust cycles in oil consumption: The role of explosive bubbles and asymmetric adjustments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2018. "Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 776-788.
    8. Tran, Nhan Dang & Sahu, Naresh Chandra & Le, Chon Van, 2024. "Evidence on the stationarity of electricity consumption in India," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Oreshkin, Boris N. & Dudek, Grzegorz & Pełka, Paweł & Turkina, Ekaterina, 2021. "N-BEATS neural network for mid-term electricity load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    10. Erdogan, Sinan & Akalin, Guray & Oypan, Oguz, 2020. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption transitory or permanent in Turkey? New evidence from fourier panel KPSS test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Kumar Mahalik, Mantu & Khan, Saleheen, 2018. "Military Spending Response to Defense Shocks? International Evidence," MPRA Paper 87362, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2018.
    12. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    13. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    14. Paweł Pełka, 2023. "Analysis and Forecasting of Monthly Electricity Demand Time Series Using Pattern-Based Statistical Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-22, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit root; Electricity consumption; Sub-national data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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