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N-BEATS neural network for mid-term electricity load forecasting

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  • Oreshkin, Boris N.
  • Dudek, Grzegorz
  • Pełka, Paweł
  • Turkina, Ekaterina

Abstract

This paper addresses the mid-term electricity load forecasting problem. Solving this problem is necessary for power system operation and planning as well as for negotiating forward contracts in deregulated energy markets. We show that our proposed deep neural network modeling approach based on the deep neural architecture is effective at solving the mid-term electricity load forecasting problem. Proposed neural network has high expressive power to solve non-linear stochastic forecasting problems with time series including trends, seasonality and significant random fluctuations. At the same time, it is simple to implement and train, it does not require signal preprocessing, and it is equipped with a forecast bias reduction mechanism. We compare our approach against ten baseline methods, including classical statistical methods, machine learning and hybrid approaches, on 35 monthly electricity demand time series for European countries. The empirical study shows that proposed neural network clearly outperforms all competitors in terms of both accuracy and forecast bias. Code is available here: https://github.com/boreshkinai/nbeats-midterm.

Suggested Citation

  • Oreshkin, Boris N. & Dudek, Grzegorz & Pełka, Paweł & Turkina, Ekaterina, 2021. "N-BEATS neural network for mid-term electricity load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:293:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921003986
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116918
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    5. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    6. He, Yaoyao & Cao, Chaojin & Wang, Shuo & Fu, Hong, 2022. "Nonparametric probabilistic load forecasting based on quantile combination in electrical power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    7. Aoqi Xu & Man-Wen Tian & Behnam Firouzi & Khalid A. Alattas & Ardashir Mohammadzadeh & Ebrahim Ghaderpour, 2022. "A New Deep Learning Restricted Boltzmann Machine for Energy Consumption Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-12, August.
    8. Pedro M. R. Bento & Jose A. N. Pombo & Maria R. A. Calado & Silvio J. P. S. Mariano, 2021. "Stacking Ensemble Methodology Using Deep Learning and ARIMA Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, November.
    9. Jiang, Yuqi & Gao, Tianlu & Dai, Yuxin & Si, Ruiqi & Hao, Jun & Zhang, Jun & Gao, David Wenzhong, 2022. "Very short-term residential load forecasting based on deep-autoformer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    10. Guo, Xiaopeng & Dong, Yining & Ren, Dongfang, 2023. "CO2 emission reduction effect of photovoltaic industry through 2060 in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    11. Gao, Tian & Niu, Dongxiao & Ji, Zhengsen & Sun, Lijie, 2022. "Mid-term electricity demand forecasting using improved variational mode decomposition and extreme learning machine optimized by sparrow search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    12. Zhu, Yunlong & Dong, Zhe & Cheng, Zhonghua & Huang, Xiaojin & Dong, Yujie & Zhang, Zuoyi, 2023. "Neural network extended state-observer for energy system monitoring," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    13. Ruixiang Zhang & Ziyu Zhu & Meng Yuan & Yihan Guo & Jie Song & Xuanxuan Shi & Yu Wang & Yaojie Sun, 2023. "Regional Residential Short-Term Load-Interval Forecasting Based on SSA-LSTM and Load Consumption Consistency Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-17, December.

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