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Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India?

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  • Sreekumar, Gauri
  • Mandal, Sabuj Kumar
  • Drall, Anviksha

Abstract

While the impact of climate change on migration is well documented in the literature, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income on climate change induced migration. To fill this gap in the literature, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally on the face of climate change induced crop loss. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. Higher rural out migration may adversely impact the agricultural sector and affect sustainable urbanization, Also, decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Sreekumar, Gauri & Mandal, Sabuj Kumar & Drall, Anviksha, 2024. "Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1125-1145.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:6:p:1125-1145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005
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    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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