IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v46y2024i6p1125-1145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India?

Author

Listed:
  • Sreekumar, Gauri
  • Mandal, Sabuj Kumar
  • Drall, Anviksha

Abstract

While the impact of climate change on migration is well documented in the literature, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income on climate change induced migration. To fill this gap in the literature, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally on the face of climate change induced crop loss. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. Higher rural out migration may adversely impact the agricultural sector and affect sustainable urbanization, Also, decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Sreekumar, Gauri & Mandal, Sabuj Kumar & Drall, Anviksha, 2024. "Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1125-1145.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:6:p:1125-1145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824001194
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jha, Raghbendra & Gaiha, Raghav & Pandey, Manoj K., 2012. "Net transfer benefits under India's rural employment guarantee scheme," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 296-311.
    2. David B. Lobell & Adam Sibley & J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, 2012. "Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 186-189, March.
    3. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 560-594.
    4. Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-178, May.
    5. Haggblade, Steven & Hazell, Peter & Reardon, Thomas, 2010. "The Rural Non-farm Economy: Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1429-1441, October.
    6. Aslihan Arslan & Eva-Maria Egger & Erdgin Mane & Vanya Slavchevska, 2021. "Climate shocks, agriculture, and migration in Nepal: Disentangling the interdependencies," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-131, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Bangkim Biswas & Bishawjit Mallick, 2021. "Livelihood diversification as key to long-term non-migration: evidence from coastal Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 8924-8948, June.
    8. Bhaskar Jyoti Neog, 2022. "Temperature shocks and rural labour markets: evidence from India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Esha Zaveri & David Lobell, 2019. "The role of irrigation in changing wheat yields and heat sensitivity in India," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    10. Koubi, Vally & Spilker, Gabriele & Schaffer, Lena & Bernauer, Thomas, 2016. "Environmental Stressors and Migration: Evidence from Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 197-210.
    11. Bodrul Islam & Pradyut Guha, 2020. "Impact of occupational migration of unskilled labourer from domestic agriculture on farm business income in source households of Assam, India," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(12), pages 1561-1576, October.
    12. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    13. Chuang, Yating, 2019. "Climate variability, rainfall shocks, and farmers’ income diversification in India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 55-61.
    14. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01630310, HAL.
    15. Brinda Viswanathan & K.S. Kavi Kumar, "undated". "Weather Variability, Agriculture and Rural Migration: Evidence from State and District Level Migration in India," Working papers 83, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    16. J. Edward Taylor & Scott Rozelle & Alan deBrauw, 1999. "Migration, Remittances, and Agricultural Productivity in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 287-291, May.
    17. Drall, Anviksha & Mandal, Sabuj Kumar, 2021. "Investigating the existence of entry barriers in rural non-farm sector (RNFS) employment in India: A theoretical modelling and an empirical analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    19. Andrew Dillon & Valerie Mueller & Sheu Salau, 2011. "Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1048-1061.
    20. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," Post-Print halshs-01630310, HAL.
    21. Frank Ellis, 1998. "Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-38.
    22. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Francis Vella, 1998. "Estimating Models with Sample Selection Bias: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 127-169.
    24. Shiba Shankar Pattayat & Jajati Keshari Parida & I. C. Awasthi, 2022. "Reducing Rural Poverty Through Non-farm Job Creation in India," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 65(1), pages 137-160, March.
    25. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    26. Islam, Md. Mofakkarul & Sarker, Md. Asaduzzaman & Al Mamun, Md. Abdullah & Mamun-ur-Rashid, Md. & Roy, Debashis, 2021. "Stepping Up versus Stepping Out: On the outcomes and drivers of two alternative climate change adaptation strategies of smallholders," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    27. Maddala, G.S., 1986. "Disequilibrium, self-selection, and switching models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1633-1688, Elsevier.
    28. D’Antoni, Jeremy M. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Barkley, Andrew P., 2012. "Feast or flee: Government payments and labor migration from U.S. agriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-192.
    29. M. J. Hossain & A. K. M. Abdullah Al-Amin, 2019. "Non-farm Income and Consumption Expenditures in Rural Bangladesh: Empirical Evidence from Multilevel Regression Modelling," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 377-396, June.
    30. Viswanathan, Brinda & Kavi Kumar, K.S., 2015. "Weather, agriculture and rural migration: evidence from state and district level migration in India," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 469-492, August.
    31. Ram Fishman, 2018. "Groundwater depletion limits the scope for adaptation to increased rainfall variability in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 195-209, March.
    32. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    33. Yaohui Zhao, 2003. "The Role of Migrant Networks in Labor Migration: The Case of China," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 500-511, October.
    34. Call, Maia & Gray, Clark & Jagger, Pamela, 2019. "Smallholder responses to climate anomalies in rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 132-144.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhaskar Jyoti Neog, 2022. "Temperature shocks and rural labour markets: evidence from India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Gauri Sreekumar & Sabuj Kumar Mandal, 2024. "Impact of drought on out-migration among rural farm households in India: does participation in non-farm activities and access to irrigation make any difference?," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 525-558, December.
    3. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    5. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    7. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2019. "Climate change, migration, and irrigation," PSE Working Papers halshs-02107098, HAL.
    8. Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," Working Papers DT/2020/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    9. Trinh, Trong-Anh & Feeny, Simon & Posso, Alberto, 2021. "The impact of natural disasters on migration: findings from Vietnam," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-510, September.
    10. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    11. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    12. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Droughts, Migration and Population in Kenya," CIRED Working Papers halshs-04685409, HAL.
    13. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    14. Julian Roeckert & Kati Kraehnert, 2022. "Extreme Weather Events and Internal Migration: Evidence from Mongolia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 95-128, March.
    15. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Droughts, Migration and Population in Kenya," PSE Working Papers halshs-04685409, HAL.
    16. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Truong, N.T. Khuong & Le, Kien, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 326-336.
    17. Pace, Noemi & Sebastian, Ashwini & Daidone, Silvio & Dela O Campos, Ana Paula & Prifti, Ervin & Davis, Benjamin, 2022. "Cash transfers’ role in improving livelihood diversification strategies and well-being: short- and medium-term evidence from Zimbabwe," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Kaori Tembata & Kenji Takeuchi, 2018. "The Impact Of Climate Variability On Drought Management: Evidence From Japanese River Basins," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(04), pages 1-20, November.
    19. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    20. Zaveri, Esha D. & Wrenn, Douglas H. & Fisher-Vanden, Karen, 2020. "The impact of water access on short-term migration in rural India," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(2), April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Climate change; Local non-farm income; Recursive model; Three Stage Least Squares;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:6:p:1125-1145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.