The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China
This paper examines the nature of stationarity, cointegration properties and Granger causality on the relationship between population and per capita income in mainland China in a multivariate vector autoregressive model. This study finds the evidence of a common stochastic trend between population and per capita income which is indicative of long-run relationship between these two variables. Empirical results also indicate that a negative long-run causal relationship is flowing from per capita income to population. The short-run relationship between population growth and per capita income growth is at variance across model specifications. The neoclassical growth model reveals that population growth positively contributes to per capita income growth while the modified endogenous growth model shows a negative relationship between these two variables. Moreover, both neoclassical and endogenous growth models indicate that per capita income growth tends to lower the population growth. The long-run relationship is consistent with Becker's view that as income grows, families tend to prefer quality rather than quantity of children.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guest, Ross S & McDonald, Ian M, 2001. "Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 117-34, June.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994.
"Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth,"
in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, . "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert F. Tamura, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Parantap Basu & Alessandra Guariglia, 2008. "Does Low Education Delay Structural Transformation?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 104-127, July.
- David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1987.
"Economic Development and the Timing and Components of Population Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
2448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bloom, David E. & Freeman, Richard B., 1988. "Economic development and the timing and components of population growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 57-81, April.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
- Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
- P. J. Dawson & Richard Tiffin, 1998. "Is there a long-run relationship between population growth and living standards? The case of India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 149-156.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997.
"Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Johnson, D. Gale, 1999. "Population and economic development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16.
- Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, December.
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- A.F. Darrat & Y.K. Al-Yousif, 1999. "On the Long-Run Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 301-313, Summer.
- Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
- Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
- John Thornton, 2001. "Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-Run Evidence from Latin America," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 464-468, October.
- Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
- Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, September.
- Alessandra Guariglia & Sandra Poncet, 2008.
"Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Guariglia, Alessandra & Poncet, Sandra, 2008. "Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 633-657, December.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1999. "Population and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 145-149, May.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R., 1987.
"Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations,"
7520, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R., 1988. "Human capital, population growth, and economic development: Beyond correlations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 83-111, April.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:3:p:355-372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.