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Modeling interest rate cycles in India

  • Bhattacharya, B.B.
  • Bhanumurthy, N.R.
  • Mallick, Hrushikesh

The present study tries to examine the behaviour of various Indian interest rates such as call money rate, and yields on secondary market securities with maturity periods of 15-91 days, 1-year, 5-years and 10-years. In the first stage, the study investigates the determinants of interest rates and finds that although the interest rates depend on some domestic macroeconomic variables such as yield spread and expected exchange rate, they are mainly affected by the movements of international interest rates, although with some lags. The policy variables such as Bank Rate and Federal Funds Rate did not show any significant impact on any of the interest rates. Further, it was found that the interest rates in the very recent period show some cyclical movements similar to that of the developed countries. Future behaviour of interest rates show that the present cycle of each interest rate would peak at different time points. This expected behaviour in domestic interest rates could be due to the integration of the domestic economy with the international money and financial market. This trend may be same in most of the emerging economies of Asia.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 899-915

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:899-915
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  3. Raghbendra Jha, 2002. "The downward rigidity of Indian interest rates," ASARC Working Papers 2002-01, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  4. Robert G. King & Mau-Ting Lin, 2005. "Reexamining the monetarist critique of interest rate rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 513-530.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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  8. Sebastian Edwards & Mohsin S. Khan, 1985. "Interest Rate Determination in Developing Countries: A Conceptual Framework (Détermination du taux d'intérêt dans les pays en développement: cadre théorique) (Determinación de los tipos de inter," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(3), pages 377-403, September.
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