Weather, temperature, and variety-seeking: When arousal turns environment into choice

Drawing on a large-scale transactional dataset from a leading Chinese watch retailer and a complementary survey, this study demonstrates that weather and temperature systematically influence consumers' variety-seeking behavior through arousal-based mechanisms. Specifically, relative to cloudy conditions, sunny weather elevates arousal and enhances variety-seeking, whereas rainy weather suppresses arousal and reduces variety-seeking. Temperature exhibits a U-shaped relationship with variety-seeking: consumers’ tendency to diversify their choices is lowest around 23 °C and rises at both higher and lower temperatures, consistent with heightened arousal responses. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in online contexts and weaker in offline settings. The U-shaped temperature pattern remains robust across different weather conditions, although the curvature and turning points vary. Collectively, the findings advance understanding of variety-seeking behavior and arousal theory, while offering actionable insights for weather-responsive marketing strategies.