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Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility

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  • Miles, David

Abstract

This paper analyses economic implications of the different ways in which the population structure of countries becomes older: longer lives and declines in fertility both generate ageing populations but have very different impacts upon the aggregate population. If lower fertility persists populations in many countries will decline. Having reviewed the evidence for this, I consider both why fertility rates have fallen and may stay low. I then analyse the economic implications of populations that may stop growing and start to fall, focusing on how this may play out in the UK. I consider policy implications of such a demographic shift. Despite many predictions of the dire consequences of falling populations the economic impacts are likely, on balance, to be positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Miles, David, 2023. "Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:24:y:2023:i:c:s2212828x22000573
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2022.100425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Jaimes, Richard & Westerhout, Ed, 2023. "Optimal policies in an ageing society," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
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    5. Jacques Boundioa, 2025. "Does public indebtedness matter in the effect of public health expenditure on human longevity in Sub-Saharan Africa countries? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold regression," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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