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Can analysts pick stocks for the long-run?

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  • Altınkılıç, Oya
  • Hansen, Robert S.
  • Ye, Liyu

Abstract

This paper examines post-revision return drift, or PRD, following analysts’ revisions of their stock recommendations. PRD refers to the finding that the analysts’ recommendation changes predict future long-term returns in the same direction as the change (i.e., upgrades are followed by positive returns, and downgrades are followed by negative returns). During the high-frequency algorithmic trading period of 2003–2010, average PRD is no longer significantly different from zero. The new findings agree with improved market efficiency after declines in real trading cost inefficiencies. They are consistent with a reduced information production role for analysts in the supercomputer era.

Suggested Citation

  • Altınkılıç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S. & Ye, Liyu, 2016. "Can analysts pick stocks for the long-run?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 371-398.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:119:y:2016:i:2:p:371-398
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.09.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Altınkılıç, Oya & Balashov, Vadim S. & Hansen, Robert S., 2019. "Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 98-119.
    3. Lee, Charles M.C. & So, Eric C., 2017. "Uncovering expected returns: Information in analyst coverage proxies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 331-348.
    4. Justin Birru & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu & René M. Stulz, 2019. "Are Analyst Trade Ideas Valuable?," NBER Working Papers 26062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nam, Jouahn & Wang, Jun & Xing, Cunyu & Zhang, Ge, 2018. "Are hated stocks good investments?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-29.
    6. Barniv, Ran Ron & Chen, Min & Li, We, 2020. "The market reaction to analyst stock recommendation and earnings forecast consistency: International evidence," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    7. Justin Birru & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu & René M. Stulz, 2022. "Are Analyst Short‐Term Trade Ideas Valuable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1829-1875, June.
    8. Li, Yi & Shen, Dehua & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Do analyst recommendations matter for rival companies?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Chen Su, 2023. "The price impact of analyst revisions and the state of the economy: Evidence around the world," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 887-930, November.
    10. Juyoun Ryoo & Cheolwoo Lee & Jin Q Jeon, 2020. "Sustainability of Analyst Recommendations in Multiple Lead Underwriter IPOs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-36, March.
    11. Wu, Chen-Hui, 2022. "The informativeness of brokerage reports: Privately-circulated versus publicly-disseminated news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Jason V. Chen & Venky Nagar & Jordan Schoenfeld, 2018. "Manager-analyst conversations in earnings conference calls," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1315-1354, December.
    13. Ryan Flugum, 2021. "The trend is an analyst's friend: Analyst recommendations and market technicals," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 301-330, May.
    14. Dambra, Michael & Field, Laura Casares & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Pisciotta, Kevin, 2018. "The consequences to analyst involvement in the IPO process: Evidence surrounding the JOBS Act," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 302-330.
    15. Guo, Li & Li, Frank Weikai & John Wei, K.C., 2020. "Security analysts and capital market anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 204-230.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analysts’ forecasts; Financial analysts; Financial markets; Investment banking; Market efficiency; Security analysts; Behavioral finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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