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Loud voices or reliable voices? Analyst influence on takeover decisions in China

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  • Chen, Yugang
  • Lu, Shan
  • Shahab, Yasir
  • Zhu, Yuxuan

Abstract

This study examines how analyst recommendations influence takeover probability using a sample of Chinese listed companies during 2012–2023, investigating whether “loud voices” (coverage breadth) or “reliable voices” (analytical accuracy) matter more for acquirer decisions in selecting targets. Our key findings are threefold. First, analyst recommendation consensus ratings are positively associated with takeover probability. Second, information complexity in analyst reports significantly attenuates this positive relationship, indicating that transmission barriers affect analyst voice effectiveness. Third, analytical reliability exhibits stronger amplification effects than coverage breadth in enhancing recommendation influence on takeover decisions. These results reveal a “reliability over loudness” information processing pattern in M&A target selection, supporting signal quality over bounded rationality explanations and providing novel theoretical insights into the role of information intermediaries in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yugang & Lu, Shan & Shahab, Yasir & Zhu, Yuxuan, 2026. "Loud voices or reliable voices? Analyst influence on takeover decisions in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:81:y:2026:i:c:s0275531925004696
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103213
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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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