IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/finrev/v58y2023i4p887-930.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The price impact of analyst revisions and the state of the economy: Evidence around the world

Author

Listed:
  • Chen Su

Abstract

This paper examines the price impact of analyst revisions in distinct economic states around the world. We find stronger average 2‐day cumulative abnormal returns in bad times, though this pattern is mainly observed in developed countries. In addition, trading strategies following analyst revisions, with holding periods from 1 to 6 months, are generally more profitable in good times with lower macroeconomic uncertainty, after controlling for market and common risk factors. The profitability, however, disappears or declines substantially after accounting for time‐varying risk premia conditioned on lagged macroeconomic information, indicating a reduced information production role played by analysts in recent decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen Su, 2023. "The price impact of analyst revisions and the state of the economy: Evidence around the world," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 887-930, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:58:y:2023:i:4:p:887-930
    DOI: 10.1111/fire.12357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12357
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/fire.12357?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
    2. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2010. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 901-937, February.
    3. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    4. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediaries: Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 291-321, May.
    5. Altınkılıç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S. & Ye, Liyu, 2016. "Can analysts pick stocks for the long-run?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 371-398.
    6. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    7. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    8. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1983. "Transaction costs and the small firm effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-79, June.
    9. Dan Amiram & Wayne R. Landsman & Edward L. Owens & Stephen R. Stubben, 2018. "How are analysts’ forecasts affected by high uncertainty?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3-4), pages 295-318, March.
    10. Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D & Starr, Ross M, 1996. "Liquidity of Secondary Capital Markets: Allocative Efficiency and the Maturity Composition of the Capital Stock," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(1), pages 19-50, January.
    11. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    12. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    15. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    17. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    18. Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2004. "Do security analysts exhibit persistent differences in stock picking ability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 67-91, October.
    19. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    20. Marcin Kacperczyk & Amit Seru, 2007. "Fund Manager Use of Public Information: New Evidence on Managerial Skills," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 485-528, April.
    21. Daniel Bradley & Jonathan Clarke & Suzanne Lee & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2014. "Are Analysts’ Recommendations Informative? Intraday Evidence on the Impact of Time Stamp Delays," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 645-673, April.
    22. Brad Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Maureen McNichols & Brett Trueman, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    23. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1984. "A comparison of inflation forecasts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 327-348, May.
    25. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    27. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
    28. Collins, Dw & Dent, Wt, 1984. "A Comparison Of Alternative Testing Methodologies Used In Capital-Market Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 48-84.
    29. Barber, Brad M. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2007. "Comparing the stock recommendation performance of investment banks and independent research firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 490-517, August.
    30. Roger K. Loh, 2010. "Investor Inattention and the Underreaction to Stock Recommendations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 1223-1252, September.
    31. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    32. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    33. Xu Cheng & Dongmin Kong & Xinwei Zheng & Qi Tang, 2022. "Do foreign investors crowd out sell‐side analysts? Evidence from China," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 815-834, November.
    34. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    35. Ivkovic, Zoran & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2004. "The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 433-463, September.
    36. Amy P. Hutton & Lian Fen Lee & Susan Z. Shu, 2012. "Do Managers Always Know Better? The Relative Accuracy of Management and Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1217-1244, December.
    37. David Hirshleifer & Sonya Seongyeon Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2009. "Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2325, October.
    38. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2010. "Is Default Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2523-2559, June.
    39. Kenneth Merkley & Roni Michaely & Joseph Pacelli, 2017. "Does the Scope of the Sell-Side Analyst Industry Matter? An Examination of Bias, Accuracy, and Information Content of Analyst Reports," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1285-1334, June.
    40. Teodor Dyakov & Hao Jiang & Marno Verbeek, 2020. "Trade Less and Exit Overcrowded Markets: Lessons from International Mutual Funds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 677-731.
    41. Ryan Flugum, 2021. "The trend is an analyst's friend: Analyst recommendations and market technicals," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 301-330, May.
    42. Lesmond, David A & Ogden, Joseph P & Trzcinka, Charles A, 1999. "A New Estimate of Transaction Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1113-1141.
    43. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
    44. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    45. Bhardwaj, Ravinder K & Brooks, LeRoy D, 1992. "The January Anomaly: Effects of Low Share Price, Transaction Costs, and Bid-Ask Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 553-575, June.
    46. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    47. Ambrus Kecskés & Roni Michaely & Kent L. Womack, 2017. "Do Earnings Estimates Add Value to Sell-Side Analysts’ Investment Recommendations?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1855-1871, June.
    48. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Joonghyuk Kim & Susan D. Krische & Charles M. C. Lee, 2004. "Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1083-1124, June.
    49. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Kim, Woojin, 2006. "Value of analyst recommendations: International evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 274-309, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
    2. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh, 2015. "A comparison of buy‐side and sell‐side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 42-51, January.
    3. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Singh, Vivek, 2015. "A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-51.
    4. Li, Fengfei & Lin, Chen & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2021. "Salient anchor and analyst recommendation downgrade," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Justin Birru & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu & René M. Stulz, 2022. "Are Analyst Short‐Term Trade Ideas Valuable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1829-1875, June.
    6. Chen Su & Hanxiong Zhang & Kenbata Bangassa & Nathan Lael Joseph, 2019. "On the investment value of sell-side analyst recommendation revisions in the UK," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 257-293, July.
    7. Chen Su & Hanxiong Zhang & Nathan Lael Joseph, 2022. "The performance of UK stock recommendation revisions: Does brokerage house reputation matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3051-3070, July.
    8. Altınkılıç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S. & Ye, Liyu, 2016. "Can analysts pick stocks for the long-run?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 371-398.
    9. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    10. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    11. Thabang Mokoaleli-Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3-4), pages 384-418.
    12. Mei-Chen Lin, 2020. "When analysts encounter lottery-like stocks: lottery-like stocks and analyst stock recommendations," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 327-353, July.
    13. Birru, Justin & Gokkaya, Sinan & Liu, Xi & Stulz, Rene M., 2019. "Are Analyst Trade Ideas Valuable?," Working Paper Series 2019-15, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    14. Jiang, George J. & Lu, Liangliang & Zhu, Dongming, 2014. "The information content of analyst recommendation revisions — Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-17.
    15. Jan Klobucnik & Daniel Kreutzmann & Soenke Sievers & Stefan Kanne, 2012. "To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series 03-03, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences.
    16. Thabang Mokoaleli‐Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3‐4), pages 384-418, April.
    17. Juyoun Ryoo & Cheolwoo Lee & Jin Q Jeon, 2020. "Sustainability of Analyst Recommendations in Multiple Lead Underwriter IPOs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-36, March.
    18. Daniel Bradley & Xi Liu & Christos Pantzalis, 2014. "Bucking the Trend: The Informativeness of Analyst Contrarian Recommendations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 391-414, June.
    19. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Kovacs, Tunde & Sharma, Vivek, 2012. "The investment value of the frequency of analyst recommendation changes for the ordinary investor," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 94-108.
    20. Alan Crane & Kevin Crotty, 2020. "How Skilled Are Security Analysts?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1629-1675, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:58:y:2023:i:4:p:887-930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.