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Predicting fraud by investment managers

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Dimmock, Stephen G.
  • Gerken, William C.

Abstract

We test the predictability of investment fraud using a panel of mandatory disclosures filed with the SEC. We find that disclosures related to past regulatory and legal violations, conflicts of interest, and monitoring have significant power to predict fraud. Avoiding the 5% of firms with the highest ex ante predicted fraud risk would allow an investor to avoid 29% of fraud cases and over 40% of the total dollar losses from fraud. We find no evidence that investors receive compensation for fraud risk through superior performance or lower fees. We examine the barriers to implementing fraud prediction models and suggest changes to the SEC's data access policies that could benefit investors.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X12000037
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 105 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 153-173

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:105:y:2012:i:1:p:153-173
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.01.002
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

Keywords: Fraud; Investment fraud; Operational risk; SEC; Disclosure; Form ADV;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
  • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
  • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
  • K2 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law
  • K22 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Business and Securities Law

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  1. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Bing Liang & Christopher Schwarz, 2008. "Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2785-2815, December.
  2. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters,in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Pool, Veronika K., 2008. "Conditional Return Smoothing in the Hedge Fund Industry," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 267-298, June.
  4. Darby, Michael R & Karni, Edi, 1973. "Free Competition and the Optimal Amount of Fraud," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 67-88, April.
  5. Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "How Widespread Was Late Trading in Mutual Funds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 284-289, May.
  6. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-341.
  7. Murphy, Deborah L. & Shrieves, Ronald E. & Tibbs, Samuel L., 2009. "Understanding the Penalties Associated with Corporate Misconduct: An Empirical Examination of Earnings and Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 55-83, February.
  8. Karpoff, Jonathan M & Lott, John R, Jr, 1993. "The Reputational Penalty Firms Bear from Committing Criminal Fraud," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 757-802, October.
  9. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Bing Liang & Christopher Schwarz, 2008. "Estimating Operational Risk for Hedge Funds: The ?-Score," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2559, Yale School of Management, revised 11 Sep 2009.
  10. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Veronika K. Pool, 2009. "Do Hedge Fund Managers Misreport Returns? Evidence from the Pooled Distribution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2257-2288, October.
  11. Jeffrey A. Busse & Amit Goyal & Sunil Wahal, 2010. "Performance and Persistence in Institutional Investment Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 765-790, 04.
  12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  13. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  14. Karpoff, Jonathan M & Lott, John R, Jr & Wehrly, Eric W, 2005. "The Reputational Penalties for Environmental Violations: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 653-675, October.
  15. Ajay Khorana & Henri Servaes & Peter Tufano, 2009. "Mutual Fund Fees Around the World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1279-1310, March.
  16. Klein, Benjamin & Leffler, Keith B, 1981. "The Role of Market Forces in Assuring Contractual Performance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 615-641, August.
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Cited by:

  1. Debaere, Peter & Evans, Richard B., 2015. "Outsourcing vs. Integration in the Mutual Fund Industry: An Incomplete Contracting Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 10599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Forensic Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 731-769, September.
  3. Edelen, Roger M. & Evans, Richard B. & Kadlec, Gregory B., 2012. "Disclosure and agency conflict: Evidence from mutual fund commission bundling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 308-326.
  4. Aiken, Adam L. & Clifford, Christopher P. & Ellis, Jesse A., 2015. "Hedge funds and discretionary liquidity restrictions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 197-218.
  5. Alexander Eisele & Tamara Nefedova & Gianpaolo Parise, 2016. "Are star funds really shining? Cross-trading and performance shifting in mutual fund families," BIS Working Papers 577, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Bernhardt, Dan & Nosal, Ed, 2013. "Gambling for Dollars: Strategic Hedge Fund Manager Investment," Working Paper Series WP-2013-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. John A. Tatom & Reza Houston, 2011. "Predicting Failure in the Commercial Banking Industry," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-27, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  8. Cumming, Douglas & Dai, Na & Johan, Sofia, 2015. "Are hedge funds registered in Delaware different?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 232-246.

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